933
FXUS64 KEPZ 282031
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
231 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Through the week and next weekend, quiet weather is expected for
the Borderland. Dry air and generally light winds are forecast for
the period. Breezy winds arrive Wednesday into Thursday as a cold
front approaches the region. Temperatures rebound to above normal
through midweek then cool to near average behind the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Not much impactful weather is forecast for this period. A
secondary upper trough swings through NM this evening with enough
lift and moisture to produce a CU field over the Gila Region this
afternoon. Other than an isolated sprinkle into Sierra county this
evening, dry conditions persist for tonight with light winds.

For Monday and Tuesday, generally zonal flow will keep weather
quiet with rising temperatures and slightly breezier winds. An
upper trough passes through the northern Rockies Wed-Thu, creating
a 995-ish mb lee cyclone in SE CO Wed PM. 20-25kts at 850mb are
modeled for Wed, making for a breezy afternoon with gusts to 35
mph. The surface low ejects into the Plains by Thursday as a cold
front moves in from the Rockies/High Plains associated with the
upper trough. The side-door/backdoor front is modeled to push
through Thursday night, bringing in cooler air and a bit of
moisture from the east. Winds are expected to stay breezy through
Thu as the upper trough and cold front pass by.

GEFS mean and GFS deterministic show a weak shortwave moving in
for Saturday, providing a bit of forcing for possible showers and
storms, especially in eastern areas. Slight PoPs remain in the
grids for Sat in case the shortwave and moisture come together
just right to spark some convection. Deep SW flow returns early
next week, flushing out the moisture to the east and creating dry
and breezy conditions. Temperatures will be above normal through
Wed or Thu depending on the speed of the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions persist through the forecast period. Other than
FEW-SCT200 passing by during the day across northern areas, mainly
SKC expected. Some gusty winds near 20kts expected this afternoon
from the W, subsiding this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Fire weather concerns increase into midweek but should not reach
critical levels. Dry conditions persist through the workweek
before some moisture moves in from the east late in the period.
Winds will be generally light on Monday from the southwest as
temperatures warm to near or above normal. Tuesday will be
slightly warmer and breezier with elevated fire danger. Winds
become breezy Wednesday and Thursday as an upper trough swings
through the Rockies. Mostly near-critical conditions expected
Wed-Thu as fuels continue to dry. Winds shift easterly for Friday
behind a cold front. Temperatures will be above average through
midweek before the front moves through.

Min RHs will be 5-15% through Friday. Vent rates will be good to
very good Monday, then mostly excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  55  85  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            50  79  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               49  84  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               46  79  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               34  58  40  62 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    49  80  52  86 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              43  74  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   44  82  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                44  81  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       53  82  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                44  84  47  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             48  86  53  92 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               48  75  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   49  84  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             47  81  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           54  82  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            44  81  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    45  83  47  89 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 49  81  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                47  79  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  40  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                38  68  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 37  68  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  40  75  44  79 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro                44  79  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                44  80  46  86 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             37  75  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   40  78  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    43  81  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               44  76  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  44  76  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   44  82  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  45  81  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           45  81  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               46  76  49  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson