359
FXUS64 KEWX 281912 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
212 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Points

* Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms early this morning,
  mainly west of I-35.
* All hazards possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and a
  tornado or two.
* Storms will likely re-intensify this afternoon across areas north
  and east of Austin, with all hazards possible once again before
  storms push east of the area.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across the
Edwards Plateau early this morning along a Pacific front/dryline. The
storms will continue to progress south and eastward through the
remainder of the morning, though a gradual weakening trend is
expected as we get closer to sunrise due to an increasingly stable
low level airmass. Through the day tomorrow, the low levels will
begin to become more unstable due to diurnal heating, so a re-
intensification of storms is expected across mainly far northeastern
portions of the CWA. While storms will continue to push east of the
CWA Sunday evening and night, the surface front/dryline will retreat
back westward and allow low level cloud cover and some patchy fog to
develop during the early morning hours on Monday. We`ve been
advertising a low chance of PoPs across southern and eastern areas
during the day Monday as the atmosphere remains unstable, though
based off of recent CAM runs, it appears there will not be enough
surface or upper level forcing to generate much in the way of
convection. Therefore, we have trended PoPs even lower. However, if a
storm does manage to fire anywhere, it will be capable of becoming
strong to severe with a wind/hail threat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A series of mid level shortwaves will move over Texas and the Plains
states in a west to southwest flow aloft. The dryline likely remains
across West Texas, though could move into Val Verde County on
Thursday. An upslope flow is expected over the Serranias del Burro
of Mexico most days. The recent model suite shows better chances for
a cold frontal passage on Friday/Friday night that retreats to the
north on Saturday. There remains uncertainty on this frontal passage
due to time of year being early May, however a stronger shortwave
does move over the Plains to give the front a shove. Otherwise, a
moist southerly lower level flow will prevail. These features along
with daytime heating should produce rounds of showers and
thunderstorms over most of our area. Forecast soundings show
generally high CAPE with some shear indicating a potential for at
least a few strong to severe storms, at times. In addition, elevated
PWs show a potential for locally heavy rains especially where storms
train or stall. Above normal temperatures prevail with the exception
of the front bringing temperatures closer to normal. Later updates
will fine tune the forecast during the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Showers continue along the I-35 corridor near AUS. Some TSRA noted as
well, with trends suggesting thunder will remain mainly north of
AUS. Will need to monitor carefully for the possibility of adding a
mention TSRA to the forecast for this afternoon for the I-35 sites.
MVFR cigs likely to return quickly this evening around 06Z, possibly
sooner given rainfall. Cigs likely to drop into IFR around 12Z and
will need to consider the possibility of VLIFR as well. Out west at
DRT, cigs will return a little later, but will be low end MVFR into
upper end IFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              81  69  88  69 /  90  10   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  81  68  88  67 /  90  10  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     82  69  89  69 /  90  10  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            81  66  86  67 /  80   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           93  67  96  74 /   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        81  67  87  66 /  90  10   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             88  67  90  69 /  70   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        81  68  88  68 /  90  10  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   82  72  86  70 /  60  40  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       83  69  88  70 /  90   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           84  70  90  71 /  90   0  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...Platt