Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
622 FXUS63 KFGF 060800 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 300 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong southeast winds today and tonight across eastern North Dakota and adjacent portions of Minnesota, with gusts up to 50 mph at times. - Showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the region through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery indicates an upper trough across the Rockies slowly propagating east. Ensemble guidance in good agreement with an upper low developing across western North Dakota over the next couple days, and then mid to late week propagating south and then east, with ridging building into the region while that takes place. There is some uncertainty with how the upper low will eventually eject eastward, but these differences do not bring many different scenarios for our region. For Friday and beyond confidence is very low, although temperatures will be around normal values. ...Strong winds today and tonight... For the southwestern two-thirds of the CWA, surface pressure gradient increases by this afternoon along with winds aloft. Model soundings indicate mixing up to around 900mb, with winds near 40 knots at the top of the mixed layer - supportive of wind advisory criteria (30 mph sustained with gusts over 45 mph). There is a very low probability scenario of gusts up to 60 mph that exists given winds near 850mb around 50-55 knots, which would happen if mixing is deeper than anticipated. For this to happen surface temperatures would need to be mid to upper 70s. ...Showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday... Strong 850mb jet will bring moisture and weak instability northward along with associated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight, with the band of activity slowly propagating northward overnight. This afternoon...will need to monitor afternoon instability across southeast North Dakota, a couple stronger elevated storms may exist given stronger deep layer shear. Tuesday early afternoon...will need to monitor afternoon instability across a narrow band from Bemidji to the northwest. Deep layer shear will be very strong (near 50 knots) when CAM solutions indicate storms, and if instability is strong enough a few stronger storms would exist. Not expecting a severe weather outbreak or anything like that, but would not be surprised if we get a marginal severe thunderstorm report or two. Rainfall will be more hit and miss with this system - generally 0.25 to 0.50 inches, with isolated amounts up to an inch or two. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 VFR conditions prevail through much of the period at all TAF sites. Cloud cover is expected to increase from west to east starting overnight, with gradually lowering ceilings approaching the middle of the day Monday. Winds increase out of the southeast by midday, with gusts as high as 40 knots persisting through at least late afternoon at most locations, with KDVL possibly seeing gusts up to 45 knots. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible starting around 01Z for KDVL and 03Z for most other locations. Isolated stronger storms are possible. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001>004-007-027-029>031-040. && $$ DISCUSSION...TG AVIATION...Lynch