Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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551 FXUS63 KFGF 082320 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 620 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms in northwest Minnesota Friday. - Continued shower chances through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Low pressure system is tracking south and east of the northern plains this afternoon, with lingering clouds across eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. Temperatures warmed into the low to mid 70s this evening thanks to the cloud coverage being scattered to few. There is a slight chance (10%) for patchy fog during the morning hours for north central Minnesota. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 The upper low continues to sag south amid weak 500mb flow with deformation along the north edge producing a broad cumulus field this afternoon in northeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. This is still expected to pop in the next few hours and yield a few showers along and south of HWY 2 though sunset. Closer to the low on the SD border instability of a few hundred CAPE should be enough for some weak thunderstorms though not seeing any lighting north of the Sioux Falls forecast area yet. Once this low drifts far enough south the clouds will dissipate for the night as lows fall into the 40s tonight. Not expecting much in terms of fog though isolated pockets cant be ruled out as we cool past the afternoon dewpoint, a good proxy for fog potential. Ridge begins to then build east and dominate flow over the western and central CONUS for the next few days. A shortwave rounding the ridge on friday could produce some scattered thunderstorms in northwest MN with MLCAPE nearing 500 j/kg and eff shear of 25-30 kts. main concern would be lightning and gusty winds t0 40-50 mph with inverted V soundings (high LCL near 2000m) and a lower associated hail threat. Next round of shower activity would be this weekend with more shortwave activity. chances for widespread rain look minimal with most of the coming activity looking to be diurnally aided by weak height falls and sub par instability for severe weather. Despite deep mixing on the eastern of the ridge for the next few days lower relative humidity in the 20-40% range through early next week is not expected to cause fire weather concerns between a low fire danger per MN DNR and recent rains helping to saturate fuels. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 SCT to BKN clouds are moving over parts of BJI, TVF, GFK, and DVL this evening but diminish toward 04-07z. Winds remain out of the northeast and gradually turn toward the north around 15-19z. VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. BKN clouds move into FAR around 03z through 13z as the low pressure in SD moves south and east of the area. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Spender/TT DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...Spender