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000
FXUS63 KFGF 101124
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
624 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds are possible Thursday afternoon and evening.
  There is a 40 percent chance for advisory impact wind gusts of
  30 mph or greater.

- Low relative humidity is expected Friday afternoon, with a low
  chance for near critical to critical fire weather concerns.
  Similar conditions are possible Saturday, however, with
  slightly higher relative humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

A relatively strong shortwave brings rain chances into the area this
afternoon into the evening and overnight period. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible during the evening and overnight period,
with a few storms capable of producing gusty winds and perhaps some
small hail. Impacts are expected to be minimal.

Pressure rises will be somewhat rapid as the trough propagates
southeastward along northwest flow, allowing a chance for gusty
winds through much of Thursday afternoon. Sustained northwest winds
in the range of 20 to 25 mph are possible with gusts ranging from 30
to 35 mph. Much drier air pours into the region thereafter, with dew
points falling into the 20s and low 30s heading into Friday.

Attention then turns to fire weather concerns Friday afternoon as RH
values fall into the low 30 percent range across a good portion of
the area. Lower RH values are possible if we see better mixing,
however, and values in the low to mid 20 percent range are possible.
The main uncertainty will be the winds, which will be strongest in
northwest Minnesota, and generally separated from the lowest RH
values in the Devils Lake area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

VFR CIGs prevail this morning through early afternoon at all TAF
sites. MVFR ceilings are possible later in the afternoon through
much of the evening in response to a cold front and the
associated shower activity. Isolated thunderstorms are possible;
however, location is too uncertain to include a mention in the
TAFs. Brief IFR conditions are possible where storms develop.
Winds will shift to the northwest following the frontal passage,
with gusts of 25 to 30 knots possible through late evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 408 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Critical fire weather is possible heading into Friday as low RH
values return to the area. Winds will be the main uncertainty
as the axis of stronger winds will be east of the lowest dew
points. In either case, we are looking at near critical fire
weather with a low chance of critical fire weather. Guidance is
suggesting low 30 percent RH values; however, better mixing will
allow RH values to fall into the lower to middle 20 percent
range.

Dew points moderate slightly on Saturday, with low to middle 30
percent values expected.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch
FIRE WEATHER...Lynch