Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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142 FXUS63 KFGF 290725 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 225 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple systems will bring periods of rain to the region today through the entire week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 The regional radar loop shows the first band of rainfall lifting north-northwest through the FA, but mainly north of the highway 200 corridor. Then there is a second little area approaching the southern FA. In between these two areas, there is a break. The first band has been pretty slow moving north, with precipitation amounts slightly lower than anticipated. As of early this morning, there still hasn`t been any rain yet along the Canadian border, possibly due to the drier east-northeast flow (there is still at least a 10 degree temperature/dewpoint spread across southwest Ontario). Therefore, there is still not even a ceiling below 12,000 feet showing up around the Lake of the Woods region. The highest precipitation totals have been over west central Minnesota, where between 0.50 and 0.75 inches have fallen. Some light precipitation should eventually move into the Lake of the Woods region, and there is still a potential for a little wet snow to mix in for areas along and north of highway 2. The precipitation is not steady enough to produce much for snow accumulation. With road temperatures mild, no impacts are expected even it does produce a dusting of snow. So the first band of precipitation along and north of highway 2 will continue to push out of the FA and into southern Canada after sunrise, while the area just to the south of the FA will pivot up into the FA and continue mainly east of the Red River Valley, before diminishing by later afternoon. Brief 500mb ridging moves in tonight, which will provide a short window with no rain. Then the next wave will eject eastward through the FA mainly Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The best moisture and instability seem to be just to the south of this FA, closer to the surface low that looks to set up from southeast South Dakota into southern Minnesota. For this FA, another round of rainfall is anticipated, with the NBM showing around a 70 percent probability for amounts greater than a quarter of inch. Some higher amounts are possible, with probabilities for over a half inch around 50 percent, mainly along and east of the Valley. These ranges seem to match pretty well with the past couple of events. More energy ejects out of the Central Plains into the Northern Plains Thursday through Friday, bringing another widespread wetting rain. There is more uncertainty with this round, so the NBM probabilities seem pretty low yet. However, amounts could again be similar to what the area has been getting (good chance of a quarter of an inch, with higher amounts possible). The uncertainty continues into the upcoming weekend, but chances for rain continue, and if it stays cloudy, it would continue to be cooler. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Widespread light rain continues through the overnight period, with a rain snow mix possible around sunrise Monday. Little to no impact is expected from snowfall through the TAF period. Ceilings are expected to fall into IFR territory by early Monday morning, along with the possibility of visibility reduction due to light snow or mist. Temperatures and dew points will fall gradually overnight, with lows generally falling into the lower 30s. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Godon AVIATION...Lynch