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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 151115
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
415 AM MST Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will slide across northern
Arizona today, allowing gusty winds, cooler temperatures and
isolated showers. Warmer and drier weather set to return for the
rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The center of a large low pressure system will
slide west to east across the AZ/UT border today. This disturbance
will bring isolated showers, primarily north of the I-40, gusty
winds, and temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal. Moisture is
limited with this system, so accumulation from any precipitation
seen today will be minimal. HREF shows enough instability for
isolated convective activity to also be possible, but impacts are
still expected to be minimal.

This area of low pressure will quickly push eastward on Tuesday,
allowing drier conditions and warmer temperatures to return. Look
for daytime highs to reach 5-15 degrees above normal Tuesday
through the weekend, with some of the warmest temperatures of the
year by Wednesday. Throughout the second half of the week, winds
will generally be out of the west-southwest at 10-20 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph during the afternoon hours. Minor shortwaves
later in the week could cause periods of high-clouds, but
otherwise, expect sunny skies to prevail.

No major changes are expected to the forecast in the foreseeable
future, so enjoy the warm/mostly sunny weather headed our way!

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 15/12Z through Tuesday 16/12Z...Mostly VFR
conditions are expected through the period, minus brief reduced
ceilings/visibilities from -SHRA/-SHSN towards the AZ/UT border.
W-SW winds of 15-25 kts expected after 18Z, with strongest winds
in eastern Arizona. Winds will slightly decrease after 07Z
Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 16/12Z through Thursday 18/12Z...VFR conditions
will continue through the outlook period. W-NW winds of 5-15 kts
expected on Tuesday, becoming W-SW winds of 15-25 kts on
Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday through Tuesday...Below normal temperatures
expected today, with isolated showers this afternoon. Look for
westerly winds 15-25 mph today, with stronger gusts possible.
Drier and warmer conditions return on Tuesday, with lighter winds.

Wednesday through Friday...Above normal temperatures and drier
conditions will return. Winds will generally be west-southwest 10-20
mph, gusting up to 25 mph throughout the period. Minimum RH values
ranging from single digits to upper teens each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff