803
FXUS65 KFGZ 301031
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
331 AM MST Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry and breezy conditions continue through the
rest of the week. Winder, more unsettled weather potentially
returns later this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Zonal flow keeps warmer temperature and dry conditions
in the forecast for today. Slight troughing on Wednesday will bring
a slight cool down for the later-half of the week, but overall
temperatures will remain near-normal for this time of year. Some
breezier winds are also expected, but will largely be nothing to
write home about as the vast majority will see gusts in the 25-35
mph range. Areas downwind of the Kaibab Plateau, Black Mesa, and
Chuska Mountains will likely see the strongest gusts, where gusts
up to 40 mph are possible.

Heights begin to rise a bit on Friday as high pressure tries to
build into Arizona. Warmer temperatures return as a result. However,
this is short-lived, as guidance hints at the potential for a
stronger trough to move into Arizona late in the weekend/early next
week. Guidance remains in disagreement on the exact track and timing
of the trough, so uncertainty remains high. Nevertheless, cooler and
windier conditions looks possible, along with potentially some
precipitation come Monday. At this point in time though, only a
handful of members from the EPS, GEFS, and CMCE have any measurable
preciptation.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 30/12Z through Wednesday 01/12Z...VFR
conditions are forecast. Look for afternoon southwest winds at
5-15 kts gusting to around 20 kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 01/12Z through Friday 03/12Z...VFR conditions
will persist. Southwest winds 10-20 gusting to 30 kts by 18Z
Wednesday. Light and variable winds early Thursday will become
west to southwest at 5-15 kts gusting to 25 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Wednesday...Look for dry conditions
with warming temperatures through Wednesday. Afternoon southwest
winds 5-15 mph gusting to near 25 mph today, increasing to 10-20 mph
gusting to 30 mph on Wednesday. Minimum RH values between 10-20%
each day.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry conditions continue. Variable winds
Thursday morning becoming west at 5-15 mph in the afternoon.
Southwest winds 15-25 mph are forecast for Friday and Saturday.
Daily minimum RH values will be around 10-20%. Slightly cooler
temperatures Thursday, then warming Friday and Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff