Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
000
FXUS64 KFWD 170557
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1257 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
/Today Through Monday Afternoon/
The short term discussion below still remains representative
through the end of the weekend. Outside of a few tweaks on
high/low temperatures and wind speeds, nothing earth-shattering on
changes through tonight.
For Monday:
After a stormy and wet end of the week and much of this weekend, a
dry period finally falls upon us with actually some pretty nice
weather for the middle of March. A shortwave mid level ridge will
build across the western half of the state with continued surface
ridging building in from the north. It will be mostly sunny and
seasonable to start your work week with near seasonal
temperatures. Much lower humidity will make for a more comfortable
day outside. After a start off in the 40s (around 50 in eastern
Central Texas), temperatures will warm into the 60s with northerly
winds 10 to 15 mph. With the wind, a light jacket or light hoodie
may not be a bad idea during the morning hours.
05/Marty
Previous Discussion:
/Through Sunday Evening/
A persistent split flow regime will remain in place this weekend
with an upper trough over the Great Lakes and a ridge over the
Pacific Northwest in the polar jet flow. Meanwhile, within the
subtropical jet, a stagnant upper low over the Desert Southwest
will remain the origin of the shortwaves responsible for the
recent bouts of elevated convection. The disturbance associated
with the ongoing showers and storms will head for the MS Valley
this evening, ending precipitation from west to east. Another
shortwave will generate one more round of convection overnight
into Sunday morning, though it will be displaced farther south,
limiting precipitation to mainly the Central Texas counties.
Severe weather is unlikely in either case, though a few storms
may produce brief heavy rain and hail. A higher severe weather
threat will exist south of the forecast area in the vicinity of a
meandering surface front.
The trough over the Great Lakes will deepen over the next 24
hours, sending a reinforcing cold front south through the region
on Sunday. Winds are already out of the north to northeast, but
the front will coincide with a velocity increase to around 15 MPH
and a noticeable drop in dewpoints. The front will arrive along
the Red River around sunrise, the I-20 corridor mid to late
morning and clear the southern-most counties around midday Sunday.
The arrival of this cooler and drier airmass will also be felt
Sunday night as temperatures drop into the 40s.
30
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 222 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024/
Update:
No major changes were warranted for this long term forecast
update. Cool but relatively pleasant weather conditions will
return across North and Central Texas as we kick off the start of
the work week. Rain chances will have already exited from west to
east by Monday with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s across the
region. It may be a bit chilly on the commute Tuesday morning with
wind chills in the low to upper 30s. This will be short-lived
however as a gradual warming trend begins and takes us through the
rest of the week. Highs will rise a couple of degrees each day,
all the way through the start of next weekend. Our next rain
chances will push through ahead of our next system through the
middle of the week where scattered showers and thunderstorms will
overtake the region once again. The severe weather threat appears
to remain low, but this will continue to be monitored as we move
through the upcoming week.
Reeves
Previous Discussion:
/Next Week/
After multiple days of rainfall, the last week of astronomical
winter will begin with cool but benign conditions as weak mid
level ridging remains over West Texas. At the surface, broad high
pressure (of Canadian origin) will build southward through the
Central US reinforcing the seasonably cool airmass already in
place. With highs generally in the lower 60s, Monday will be the
coolest day of the week in most areas. Cold air advection in the
wake of Sunday`s reinforcing cold front and clear skies will push
lows into the mid 30s to lower 40s by daybreak Tuesday. The
surface high will reach the Central Gulf coast early Tuesday
resulting in the return of southerly surface winds. In addition
to gradual moisture recovery, temperatures will also trend warmer
through the end of the work week with highs back in the 70s
areawide on Thursday.
By late Tuesday, the upstream blocking regime will finally begin
to break down as the upper-level low over Arizona transitions into
an open wave. The remnants of the weakening low, eventually
becoming a modestly amplified wave, will lift through the Four
Corners region on Wednesday and then emerge into the Plains by
early Thursday. Induced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern
Rockies will lead to a slight uptick in wind speeds as the surface
gradient tightens. Instability and moisture should be sufficient
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday and
Thursday as the low and associated cold front push across the
state. At this time the risk for severe weather appears low. This
front will not carry the same cool down as we will see at the
beginning of the next week with temperatures forecast to be at or
slightly above seasonable values on Friday and into the weekend.
12
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/
One more challenging day for aviation interests from the D10
airports into Central Texas with regard to both rain and thunder
as well as low cigs through early afternoon. IFR/LIFR conditions
will begin the day with additional LIFR/VLIFR vsbys possible at
Waco Regional Airport where soupy near surface conditions and very
light winds could result in more concentrated BR/FG through 15z.
With FROPA arriving later this morning across DFW, look for IFR
cigs to quickly improve into MVFR after daybreak, then gradually
improving to low VFR this afternoon.
A cold front moving out of OK will arrive into the DFW D10
airports with a FROPA just before 18z. Light NE surface winds 4-7
kts will back to the N at 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts to 20 kts
this afternoon. FROPA at Waco will occur a few hours later.
05/Marty
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 56 67 47 61 43 / 40 10 0 0 0
Waco 58 67 49 62 41 / 50 40 10 0 0
Paris 55 66 42 56 35 / 70 10 0 0 0
Denton 54 65 42 59 38 / 30 10 0 0 0
McKinney 55 67 43 59 39 / 50 10 0 0 0
Dallas 57 68 47 61 42 / 50 20 0 0 0
Terrell 57 67 45 59 38 / 60 20 0 0 0
Corsicana 59 68 49 62 41 / 70 40 5 0 0
Temple 58 67 49 63 42 / 60 40 10 0 0
Mineral Wells 53 65 43 61 39 / 20 20 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$