Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
000
FXUS64 KFWD 121805
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
105 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Wednesday Afternoon/

Morning stratus continues to erode early this afternoon, leaving
behind scattered cu and streaming cirrus overhead. With
persisting southerly flow, afternoon highs will peak in the mid
70s to low 80s as daytime heating increases. To our north a
surface low will track across Kansas today, tightening the
pressure gradient and increasing wind speeds to 15-20 mph with
gusts up to 25-30 mph possible.

Warm and moist air advection will continue across North and Central
Texas through midweek thanks both to the upper trough located to
our west and smaller passing shortwave disturbances moving through
the overall flow. This advection will again ramp up overnight due
to stout ~30-40 kt low-level flow at 925 mb. A repeat of this
morning will occur as another deck of stratus will surge across
the CWA once again early Wednesday morning. A couple more bullish
hi-res CAMs have hinted at WAA-induced showers generally near and
east of I-35 tomorrow morning, but probabilities are low at this
time and these models are a small minority. As such, have not
included any mention of precipitation tomorrow morning as the main
message will begin after the short term period ends.

As moisture continues northward and establishes a warm sector, a
dryline will take residence just to the west of our Big Country
counties, with increasingly warm temperatures and dewpoints within
this sector by Wednesday. Afternoon temperatures will be able to
spike up to the mid 70s to mid 80s. This will be the warmest day
of the forecast, around 10-15 degrees above normal for North
Texas and 5-10 degrees above normal for Central Texas.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 231 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024/
/Wednesday Through Early Next Week/

By mid-week, a lee-side surface trough will strengthen in
southeast Colorado and the Oklahoma Panhandle in response to
lowering upper level heights over the southern Rockies. Extending
southward from the surface low, a dryline will sharpen as low-
level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico continues to be transported
northward into the region. Amid strengthening southerly to
southwesterly low/mid-level flow, Wednesday is shaping up to be
the warmest day of the period with highs peaking at upwards of
15F+ above normal maximum temperature in a few areas across North
Texas.

Situated between anomalously strong ridging developing over the
Pacific Northwest and downstream ridging across the Appalachians,
the digging trough is progged to become cutoff over the Southwest
through late week. Thursday remains the primary day of concern
both in terms of severe weather and heavy rainfall potential as
moisture advection continues south and east of the attendant
dryline and cold front. Despite improved model agreement in the
overall synoptic pattern, forecast confidence remains limited due
to lingering uncertainty in frontal timing as well as the coverage
and location of early day precipitation.

Though any prefrontal warm-sector initiation will initially need
to overcome moderately strong capping, low-level moisture
advection beneath cooler temperatures aloft may generate
sufficient instability to support thunderstorm development as
early as late morning or early Thursday afternoon. Convective
coverage should peak during the late afternoon and evening as the
air mass further destabilizes and the front finally pushes into
the region. The expected effective shear/instability profiles will
support the potential for strong to severe storms across much of
the region during this period. Large hail and damaging gusts still
appear to be the main hazards with pockets of heavy rainfall also
possible.

Persistent southwesterly flow in conjunction with the slow-
moving/stalled frontal boundary, which is expected to have pushed
south of our forecast area, should maintain convective chances
over at least some part of our area through the weekend. By
Sunday, weak surface high pressure will finally build across the
central CONUS, spilling drier air southward through the Plains
into early next week. Post-frontal temperatures will be impacted
by modest CAA, dense cloud cover, and lingering precipitation
resulting in near to below normal temperatures through Day 7
(Monday).

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

While there was an hour or two of clearing, a last reach of MVFR
stratus has overtaken all TAF sites early this afternoon. This
should only last the next hour or so as daytime heating helps to
mix out the boundary layer and lift all sites back to VFR around
18Z. VFR will prevail the rest of the day with breezy southerly
winds around 15 kts and gusts up to around 25 kts.

Winds will decrease slightly this evening, but will stay near
10-15 kts as the boundary layer does not completely decouple.
Another round of early morning MVFR stratus will move atop the TAF
sites Wednesday morning, ~8Z for ACT and ~9Z for D10. Have kept
all cigs at MVFR <2000ft for now, though there is a window for
potential IFR cigs around 13-16Z. NBM probabilities for this
potential remain below 30%, so have not included this in the TAF
at this time.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  61  80  65  79 /   0   5   5  10  80
Waco                77  61  79  66  78 /   0   0   5  10  70
Paris               76  59  77  64  79 /   0   5   5  30  70
Denton              77  58  80  61  78 /   0   5   5  10  70
McKinney            76  60  77  64  79 /   0   5   5  10  70
Dallas              77  62  80  66  80 /   0   5   5  10  80
Terrell             76  60  77  65  79 /   0   5   5  20  80
Corsicana           78  62  80  68  81 /   0   5   5  20  70
Temple              78  61  79  64  78 /   0   0   5  10  70
Mineral Wells       80  58  83  60  79 /   0   5   0   5  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.