Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 180500
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1200 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Early This Week/

The area will get to dry out a bit as subsidence associated with a
well-defined shortwave ridge aloft combines with dry, post-frontal
Canadian air at the surface. Brisk and at times gusty northerly
winds 10 to 15 mph will work in unison with continued low level
cold advection and low humidity values to cap high temperatures
this afternoon in the upper 50s/lower 60s, despite plentiful
sunshine for most. A hoodie and light jacket (especially early in
the day ) is recommended, but otherwise not a terrible early
Spring day with just some passing cirrus from time to time.

A broad surface ridge moves southeast across the region tonight
under mostly clear skies with light northeast winds become south
5-10 mph across the northern and western zones by sunrise Tuesday.
This will be the chilliest morning of the week. Radiational
cooling will be in full force and will combine with very low
humidity for low temperatures tanking into the 30s, with a few
readings remaining around 40 degrees for especially the immediate
urban areas.

A shortwave moving over the southern half of the state on Tuesday
will result in broken high cloudiness across Central Texas, with
mostly sunny conditions further north toward the Red River Valley.
South-southwest winds return in the wake of the eastward
departing surface high, and despite the increasing canopy of high
clouds over the southern part of the forecast area, ensuing low
level warm advection across the Southern Plains will result in
highs between 65 and 70 degrees. The warmest temperatures will be
across North Texas where more abundant sunshine is expected.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 204 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024/
/Monday Night Onward/

Weak ridging aloft and a recent frontal passage will maintain dry
and seasonable weather Monday night through most of Wednesday. In
fact Monday night temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, with lows ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Light
return flow will begin on Tuesday as an upper low over the Desert
Southwest finally begins to move east and lee-side surface low
develops over southeastern Colorado. The low will cross New Mexico
Tuesday night, emerging in the Texas Panhandle on Wednesday.

Scattered showers will develop Wednesday evening as the upper low
approaches the Big Country. Precipitation will spread east
through North and Central Texas Wednesday night and Thursday as
the upper low passes overhead. Thunderstorm potential will
increase during the day Thursday as the atmosphere destabilizes, a
few of which may become strong enough to produce small hail and
frequent lightning, as most-unstable CAPE values climb to 500-1000
j/kg. Modest levels of instability and effective bulk shear
(around 30kt) should keep the overall severe weather threat fairly
low.

Showers and storms will exit to our east Thursday night as the
upper low heads for the Deep South. Dry and seasonable weather
will once again develop for the start of next weekend in the wake
of the departing system, with lows in the lower 50s and highs in
the lower to middle 70s.The upper level pattern will remain
somewhat unsettled, however, as the next upper level trough
approaches next Sunday. It looks like that Sunday (the 24th) may
end up being an active afternoon and evening of dryline
convection, and though too soon to get involved with the details,
it could be something to keep an eye on later this week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

No concerns. VFR with SCT-BKN cigs overnight 7-11 kft through
sunrise. Period cigs at FL250 thereafter.

NW-N surface winds 5-10 kts will prevail through mid morning
with N winds 10-15 kts/gusts to 20 kts this coming afternoon.
Winds will decouple and be NE around 5 kts after 00z Tuesday.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    45  60  40  70  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
Waco                49  61  38  66  48 /  30   0   0   0   0
Paris               40  56  32  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              41  59  35  68  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
McKinney            41  59  36  67  47 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dallas              46  61  41  69  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
Terrell             44  58  35  66  47 /  20   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           48  61  39  66  49 /  30   0   0   0   0
Temple              49  62  40  65  47 /  30   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       42  61  37  71  45 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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