Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 180007
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
707 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The previous forecast remains in good shape with no major changes
warranted with this update. Showers will continue to push through
North and Central Texas as we move into the evening hours before
conditions finally improve just after sunset. A few rumbles of
thunder remain possible across portions of Central Texas where
marginal instability resides. Otherwise, lows tonight will range
in the upper 30s into the upper 40s. Tomorrow will be another cool
day with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s across the region.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Today and Monday/

Dense cloud cover continues to blanket much of the region, but
some sunshine is attempting to peek through across portions of
the area. A cold front is currently draped across North Texas and
will continue moving south through the afternoon. The front will
mostly go unnoticed, outside of a slight increase in winds, with
wind speeds near 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20-25 mph. Afternoon
temperatures will peak in the 60s.

Scattered showers and perhaps a few storms will move into western
Central Texas around mid afternoon and continue east through the
evening. Drier air will be filtering in behind the cold front,
which should keep the rain chances confined to areas south of the
I-20 corridor. The potential for thunder will decrease as this
activity nears I-35, with all showers eventually exiting to the
east shortly after sunset. Clouds will gradually scatter out
through the remainder of the night with temperatures bottoming out
mostly in the 40s.

Monday will be slightly cooler in the wake of the cold front;
however, sunshine will finally return following our prolonged
period of cloudy skies. High temperatures will range from the mid
50s along the Red River to mid 60s in Central Texas with a steady
north/northwest wind around 10-15 mph.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 204 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024/
/Monday Night Onward/

Weak ridging aloft and a recent frontal passage will maintain dry
and seasonable weather Monday night through most of Wednesday. In
fact Monday night temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, with lows ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Light
return flow will begin on Tuesday as an upper low over the Desert
Southwest finally begins to move east and lee-side surface low
develops over southeastern Colorado. The low will cross New Mexico
Tuesday night, emerging in the Texas Panhandle on Wednesday.

Scattered showers will develop Wednesday evening as the upper low
approaches the Big Country. Precipitation will spread east
through North and Central Texas Wednesday night and Thursday as
the upper low passes overhead. Thunderstorm potential will
increase during the day Thursday as the atmosphere destabilizes, a
few of which may become strong enough to produce small hail and
frequent lightning, as most-unstable CAPE values climb to 500-1000
j/kg. Modest levels of instability and effective bulk shear
(around 30kt) should keep the overall severe weather threat fairly
low.

Showers and storms will exit to our east Thursday night as the
upper low heads for the Deep South. Dry and seasonable weather
will once again develop for the start of next weekend in the wake
of the departing system, with lows in the lower 50s and highs in
the lower to middle 70s.The upper level pattern will remain
somewhat unsettled, however, as the next upper level trough
approaches next Sunday. It looks like that Sunday (the 24th) may
end up being an active afternoon and evening of dryline
convection, and though too soon to get involved with the details,
it could be something to keep an eye on later this week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFS/

Concerns...VCSH/VCTS across the D10/Waco through 02z.

VFR will generally prevail through this period for all TAF sites.
Ceilings have gradually lifted to around 060-080 for the D10
terminals, with ceilings around 040-050 across Waco. Showers will
continue to move through the area into the early evening, clearing
out to the east by around 02z. A few lightning strikes will be
possible near Waco where marginal instability resides. Winds will
remain northerly through the period, with stronger gusts up to 15
kts through tomorrow afternoon.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    45  61  41  68  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
Waco                48  62  40  64  48 /  30   0   0   0   0
Paris               40  57  33  65  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              40  60  35  68  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
McKinney            41  59  36  67  47 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dallas              46  61  40  67  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
Terrell             43  59  36  65  47 /  20   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           48  62  40  67  49 /  30   0   0   0   0
Temple              48  63  40  66  47 /  30   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       42  62  38  70  45 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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