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000
FXUS63 KGID 130557
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1257 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm weekend ahead of the entire region with daily high
  temperatures 20+ degrees above normal.

- Warm weather may create some fire weather concerns Saturday
  afternoon for a small part of the area with more wind
  potential.

- Dynamic upper level low pressure still on target to impact the
  area early next week with some severe weather potential. It
  will bring strong winds to the area again, but also the
  opportunity for some beneficial rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Nice weather this afternoon across south central and north
central Kansas with full sunshine and seasonal temperatures
as southerly breeze returns to the area. Near critical to
critical fire weather conditions have developed in a small
area...see fire weather discussion noted later in the AFD.

Bottom line on the weekend (and into Monday) is it will be
the warmest 2-3 days stretch of weather this spring as
high temperatures soar into the 80s. High temperatures will
be 20-25 degrees above normal through Monday. We may not break
a record but are in the neighborhood. Saturday will see some
high clouds working across the area. In fact, the Storm
Prediction Center even put a small marginal risk for T-storms
across the north central Kansas and far southern Nebraska. This
is due to some hi-res models indicating some afternoon
convective developing in the heat of the day which may result in
locally gusty winds from showers/storms. It is not uncommon
form some high based convective on such warm days from west-
central to north central Kansas, and have opted to include a
small chance for showers across north central to better align
with the SPC outlook at this point. Sprinkles would probably be
it and no appreciable rain is expected. Such a warm/dry lower
atmosphere may accentuate fire weather conditions for some areas
Saturday were there will be more steady wind potential. See the
fire weather discussion noted later in the AFD.

A weak front slides across the area Saturday night. That will
shift winds to a northerly direction by Sunday morning.
Overnight, we may actually see increase in low level smoke from
any regional burning activity as smoke tends to concentrate
around frontal areas with the lighter/variable winds. However,
cold advection is minimal, and Sunday looks like a great day
with generally light winds, sunshine and those warm
temperatures.

The main story next week is the strong upper level low set to
move across the forecast Monday night/Tuesday, and the potential
for thunderstorms (strong/severe), but also strong winds behind the
weather system Wednesday/Thursday. Confidence remains high in
an active weather period later Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday
with the low passage. Recent runs seem to suggest a slightly
slower evolution of the upper low. This is a dynamic system
again, so on the front side we will see stronger southeast
wind pulling up low level moisture into the area on Monday.
This system does look like it will have more moisture to work
with than last weekend`s strong low and storms. However, there
may be sharp line of dry air to the west and moisture to the
east, creating some fire weather concerns Monday afternoon west
of Highway 281 with the wind and warmth. With temperatures
Monday still well above normal, locations which do manage more
moisture return could have severe weather Monday evening and
overnight. The main uncertainty is timing and location
development of any thunderstorms (earlier vs. later), which
could greatly impact potential severe weather mode, or even
rainfall. Parts of the southwest forecast area in north central
Kansas may struggle to even catch rain as a significant dry slot
may roll into Kansas as well. On the back side of the system,
precipitation chances (40-70%) hold on Tuesday (higher northern
areas). As one might expect, strong winds will settle across
the region from the northwest Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. Even
cooler weather settles in by Thursday.

Peering ahead into the period of week 2 or roughly after April 20th
or so...next weekend will be quite a bit cooler as the Central
Plains linger under the impacts of the the early week weather
system. Temperatures will likely be below normal for at least
part of the weekend. However, a rebound in temperatures will
start and lead into the final 7-10 days of the month. All longer
term ensembles point toward above normal heights and H85
temperatures. So, after the cooler weekend next weekend, warmer
days will follow to end the month. Ensembles also point toward
below normal precipitation in rounding out the month.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Clear skies should persist through the pre dawn hours, but
expect increasing high clouds by mid to late morning. VFR
ceilings will persist throughout the TAF valid period. The
primary aviation concern will really be the strong low level
wind shear that is ongoing and should last until right around
dawn. The surface wind will primarily be southerly today, but
becoming more southwesterly this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Rest of this afternoon...
Return south flow in far western forecast is teaming with
RH values of 20-25 percent to push Red Flag Criteria Dawson,
Gosper and Furnas counties. RH values have been lower than
expected in general. This trend will continue through 5-6
pm before improving.

Saturday...
Holding off at the moment on Fire Weather headline for a part
of southeast forecast area, mainly southeast of a line from
Hebron NE to Stockton KS, but do have increasing concern
Red Flag conditions could be in play during the afternoon
hours. While entire region is very warm Saturday, this is
an area were stronger south winds will develop gusting
over 20 mph at times with RH values near 20% possible.
With temperatures reaching deep into the 80s, there
may even be some afternoon high based convective sprinkles
which could cause locally gusty winds. One more look and
coordination sequence from the midnight shift should
help make that decision.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Moritz
AVIATION...Wesely