053
FXUS63 KGLD 081717
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1117 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Briefly critical fire weather conditions are forecast around
  the noon hour for locales along and south of I-70.

- Precipitation chances return Thursday and then again Sat/Sun.
  Severe weather is not expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 340 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

For today, more mild conditions are forecast across the area as
the surface low slowly moves further to the east while the upper
low remains over the Plains. With this, the winds will slowly
lower through the day to around 10 to 20 mph. Gusts will start
around 30 mph, but are forecast to lower going into the
afternoon hours as the height gradient weakens with the upper
low more over the area. RH is forecast to drop to around 13-20%
for locales south of I-70 by the afternoon hours. This will lead
to briefly critical conditions around noon, but the weakening
winds are forecast to prevent Red Flag criteria from being met.
Highs are forecast to near 70.

Tonight and into tomorrow, the upper low is forecast to split
with a cut off low forecast to develop and move to the west
coast while the main trough swings through the Great Lakes
region. This will put the area in more of a split flow, however
a 850mb disturbance may move through during that time and
provide some slight synoptic lift for the area. At the same
time, moisture is forecast to move into the area. This would
likely lead to an increase in cloud cover and a chance for
showers as weak lift and low instability would limit any storms
chances. With this tomorrow will see mixed conditions of sunny
skies and cloudy with showers. The showers will favor north of
I-70 before the more moist air mass mixes too much with the
drier air. Highs tomorrow are forecast to warm into the 60`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

For the weekend, warm and dry conditions will give way to more
unsettled weather as the upper cut-off low advances to the east.
There is some uncertainty with how quickly the upper disturbance
will move east with ensembles generally shifted towards the
slower tracks. Currently, some slight ridging is forecast to
grip the area Friday and Saturday which would allow for warmer
temperatures generally near or in the 70`s. Then, as the upper
low shifts east, the area will see chances for precipitation,
generally starting Saturday afternoon and potentially lasting
through Sunday evening. Severe weather is not expected at this
time as the cut off low would weaken the winds through much of
the atmosphere, keeping shear low. Instability is also forecast
to be low with the different types of CAPE below 1000 J/KG.

Next week has more uncertainty as there could be smaller
disturbances that move through the area as the cut-off low
shifts off to the east. Generally speaking, would favor near
average temperatures and small chances for precipitation given
the suggested pattern. There could also be a larger trough that
begins to develop and move through around the mid-week,
probably the next feature of interest if it forms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Northwesterly winds will
gradually decline this afternoon, remaining light through the
night.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...JTL