381
FXUS64 KHUN 041754
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1254 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1011 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Temperatures are currently in the upper 60s to lower 70s
primarily. A good deal of cloud cover is in place over portions of
Jackson and DeKalb counties and also from Limestone into Colbert
counties. In between, a substantial amount of sunshine is in
place.

Precipitation is mainly confined to near a weak surface low that
currently is in place over north central Georgia. The forcing with
this feature should remain far enough to the east to keep it from
producing activity in our area.

One additional area of scattered showers is also present in
central Tennessee that is associated with a weak upper level
trough axis extending southwest from a weak low at 700 mb over
southern Indiana. Expect this to be the main driver of additional
showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon into the early
evening hours. However, models don`t really move this trough axis
much to the south this afternoon, so confidence in even scattered
coverage has lessened near and south of the Tennessee River
overall. The exception to this could be northeastern Alabama into
portions of southern middle Tennessee, where a higher chance (30
to 50 percent) may occur this evening, as a diurnal heating
boundary sets up from north to south through the area.

We should see cloudy conditions return fairly quickly towards
into the early afternoon hours over much of the area, except maybe
portions of Cullman county and further south. Lowered temperatures
overall today given current temperatures and expected cloud cover
through the day. Highs should make it into the lower 80s in
locations that are currently seeing more sunshine (mainly near and
south of the Tennessee River). Elsewhere, expect highs to be
cooler, only reaching the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The general synoptic pattern across the TN Valley will remain
largely unchanged tonight and Sunday, with light/moist southerly
flow expected to persist in the low-levels beneath a zonal flow
regime aloft. There are some indications that another weak mid-
level vort max (perhaps convectively-induced) may track eastward
across our region late this evening, and with some agreement from
the 00Z CAMs on an increase in convection, we have included a low-
medium chance POP between 3-9Z. This activity will in all
likelihood exit the region prior to sunrise on Sunday, with a
warm/humid but dry start to the day followed by development of
isolated afternoon showers and storms as temps rise into the m-u
80s.

Over the course of the day tomorrow, another shortwave trough is
predicted to lift northeastward from the Red River Valley of OK/TX
within the flow around a strong upper low tracking east-
northeastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Due
to the motion of the upper low, a well-defined lee cyclone will
evolve across eastern MT throughout the day, forcing a warm front
to spread northeastward across the TN Valley late Sunday
night/early Monday morning. Deep lift generated by the warm front
and approaching shortwave trough will produce a fairly widespread
coverage of rain and storms that may begin across our western
zones as early as 00Z Monday before spreading further
northeastward. Although mid-level winds will back to SW and
increase to 15-25 knots preceding the arrival of the trough, shear
does not appear strong enough at this point to warrant concern
for organized storm structures.

Most NWP guidance suggests that the effective warm front will lie
across the OH Valley by 12Z Monday, with remnants of nocturnal
precipitation expected to spread northeastward and out of the
region during the late morning. A 500-mb shortwave ridge to the
east of the upper low (discussed in the paragraph above) will
translate across the region, yielding a lower but non-zero
coverage of showers and storms Monday afternoon and night. Low-
level SW flow will strengthen in the wake of the warm front, with
dewpoints expected to rise into the u60s-l70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Latest long range guidance from the global models suggests that
the presence of a mid-level ridge will continue to limit the
coverage of warm sector showers and thunderstorms across the TN
Valley on Tuesday, with a breezy, warm and humid day expected as
highs rise into the m-u 80s. However, by Tuesday night, we will
need to keep a close eye on thunderstorm activity to our northwest
that should develop along a Pacific cold front/dryline that will
surge eastward ahead of an occluding cyclone across eastern
MT/western ND. There are some indications that frontal convection
across southern portions of MO/IL may evolve into a broken MCS
Tuesday evening that could potentially track southeastward into
the local area early Wednesday morning and may feature a risk for
strong-severe storms as mid-level westerly flow will likely
increase to 35-40 knots prior to its arrival in our region.

However, a more reasonable scenario is that the initial MCS will
not reach our region due to the development of another weak area
of low pressure across the southern High Plains that should eject
northeastward into MO by Wednesday evening. In this case,
redevelopment of thunderstorms would occur along the path of the
surface low (across MO) early Wednesday afternoon that could
potentially grow upscale into a larger and more significant MCS
that would reach our region late Wednesday night/early Thursday
morning. This convective system would be entering an environment
of even stronger deep-layer shear (with WSW flow aloft of 45-50
knots) and moderate-high levels of instability driven by surface
dewpoints in the lower 70s beneath a plume of steep lapse rates
aloft. Thus, a notable risk of severe thunderstorms producing
large hail and damaging winds may materialize during this
timeframe. A third and final round of storms may occur on Thursday
night/Friday morning prior to the eventual passage of a cold
front that should bring a drier/cooler airmass into the region by
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Primarily VFR CIGS are expected through 22Z. However, some MVFR
CIGS could occur, so a tempo group for that was included. A low
chance (PROB30) for -TSRA exists from 22Z through 03Z at KHSV. Not
expecting this possibility further west at KMSL. Fog may be a
possibility at both terminals, but left out for this issuance.
Some may be added in subsequent issuances.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...KTW