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000
FXUS64 KHUN 150148
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
848 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 848 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

High pressure continuing to promote tranquil conditions this
evening as mid/high clouds finally shift off to the ESE/SE. Light
southwesterly breezes will continue to mitigate radiational
cooling somewhat as another mild night is anticipated. Lows in the
mid/upper 50s will be common once again -- with a few locations
in northwest Alabama remaining in the lower 60s. Only minor tweaks
made to the forecast based on the latest obs/trends as everything
remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Short term model consensus suggests that a mid-level ridge
(extending northeastward from a strong subtropical high over the
southwestern Gulf) will build across the local area tomorrow. This
will result in the development of a notable mid-level inversion
that will keep our region dry, with the best prospects for
afternoon storms occurring in the vicinity of a developing warm
front from the Lower OH Valley east-southeastward into the
southern Appalachians. With less cloud cover to contend with,
highs should be in the l-m 80s for most of the valley.

Low-level flow will begin to back to SSE late Monday afternoon or
early Monday evening, in response to a deepening surface low
across the High Plains of eastern CO, and the resultant increase
in boundary layer dewpoints coupled with an increase in mid/high-
level clouds will lead to milder overnight lows in the u50s-l60s
Tuesday morning. A few sprinkles of rain or light showers will be
also be possible beginning after Midnight and continuing for much
of the day on Tuesday, but due to the dry subcloud layer noted in
forecast soundings, we have kept POPs below 15%. SSE flow will
strengthen into the 20-30 MPH range over the course of the day on
Tuesday, compensating for cloudy skies to yield highs in the
u70s-l80s.

Well to the west of the local area (across the southern Plains),
deep/moist convection will likely be in progress Tuesday morning
along a surface trough extending southward from the central High
Plains surface low. As the low lifts northeastward through the
Great Plains and into eastern IA by 12Z Wednesday (in conjunction
with a compact upper low), it will begin to occlude and the
surface trough should decelerate and become less defined with time
as it tracks across eastern OK Tuesday afternoon and into AR
Tuesday night. However, a rapidly strengthening SSW low-level jet
ahead of this feature will support a broad axis of warm sector
convection from the Mid-South region northeastward into the Lower
Great Lakes beginning Tuesday evening, and some of this activity
may develop eastward into the northwestern portion of our CWFA
early Wednesday morning before spreading southeastward across the
remainder of the region after sunrise. Fortunately, it still
appears as if this first round of showers and storms will arrive
immediately ahead of a plume of moist and increasingly unstable
air at the surface, featuring dewpoints in the l-m 60s.

It is becoming increasingly apparent that a second/distinct
episode of convection will evolve along the northern portion of
the synoptic cold front (i.e. from the Lower Great Lakes southward
into the OH Valley) as it begins to sweep eastward late Wednesday
morning. With the TN Valley expected to be along the southern
edge of stronger forcing for ascent related to the upper low,
there is some uncertainty regarding storm coverage along the cold
front with southwestward extent into our region. But, if
sufficient airmass recovery takes place in the wake of morning
precip, the combination of effective bulk shear in the 35-45 knot
range, a low-level jet of 35-40 knots and dewpoints in the l-m 60s
(yielding CAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range) would support a threat
for severe storms late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening.
The front should sag southeastward into our region overnight,
with the risk for storms ending early Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Afternoon Update: The extended forecast discussion below remains
valid this afternoon, as 12Z guidance from the global models
continues to indicate the passage of a secondary cold front at
some point Friday or Saturday that will bring another round of
thunderstorms to the region. This front will be followed by a
surge of cooler/drier air as a broad mid-level trough may become
established across the eastern CONUS, but with a couple of
disturbances noted in the southern stream postfrontal rain will
remain a possibility through Sunday.

Rain chances taper off Wednesday night with Thursday looking to
be a dry day as the initial cold front pushes into the mid
Atlantic. Unfortunately dry weather will be short lived as a
secondary cold front associated with a low pressure system moving
through the northern Great Lakes Region moves through the area on
Friday. Overcast skies and low to medium rain chances return
Friday morning and remain throughout the day. Low rain chances and
partly cloudy skies linger on the back side of the cold front on
Saturday with cooler and drier air moving in behind the cold front
through the remainder of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at both terminals.
SCT/BKN decks of mid-level clouds will continue to filter across
the area overnight, before ceilings lower to around 4 kft during
the day on Monday. Winds will become light overnight, but increase
again after sunrise -- becoming gusty out of the SW between 10-20
kts.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...AMP