Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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361 FXUS61 KILN 300113 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 913 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and some thunderstorms will occur tonight into Tuesday ahead of a cold front that will cross the region. High pressure will then build in for the middle of the week with the return of much above normal temperatures. Another cold front will move towards the area on Friday bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to overspread the area through late evening and into the early morning hours. These are in associated with a weak mid level short wave moving through the Ohio Valley and ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Expect a decreasing trend in any thunderstorm activity over the next few hours as we continue to lose the daytime heating, with mainly just rain showers through the rest of the night. Pcpn will begin to taper off from the west later tonight as the cold front moves into the area. Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s northwest to the lower 60s in the southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Showers and possibly some thunder will still be ongoing at the beginning of the period. This will move off to the east in the morning. The cold front will continue to lag the main area of precipitation and it is possible that there could be a bit of further development along the front before it finally clears the forecast area as well. Clouds will decrease during the afternoon and into the evening. High pressure will build in behind the front and skies will eventually become clear. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s with lows Tuesday night falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mid-level ridging develops on Wednesday and amplifies on Thursday ahead of the next digging shortwave trough over the Central Plains. This ridging along with a return southwesterly flow will allow temperatures to return to above normal levels. A frontal system ahead of the trough will progress into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Friday. Showers and storms will be likely into Friday night depending on the timing of the front. Guidance continues to diverge heading into the weekend, with uncertainty on how quickly the frontal precipitation clears our area Saturday. By Sunday the first system will likely have cleared our southeast with a secondary front pushing through the Great Lakes. There may not be much moisture with this reinforcing front, so have included just a low chance of showers... which are maintained into Monday. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will slowly overspread the area from the west through the evening hours ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunder chances should gradually taper off through the evening as we lose the daytime instability, so will only include a VCTS at the western TAF sites for a few hours this evening. Showers will continue into the overnight hours and then begin to taper off from the west as the cold front moves in. VFR cigs early this evening will drop into MVFR through late evening and then IFR later tonight. IFR cigs will then trend back into MVFR through mid morning Tuesday before scattering out with VFR conditions developing as we head into Tuesday afternoon. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms and MVFR cigs possible Friday afternoon into Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL