644
FXUS64 KJAN 011710 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1210 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Dry air associated with an axis of surface high pressure over the
Southern Appalachians will keep the rain away again today. PWAT
values this morning were less than 1 inch, and should remain so
through the daytime. A ridge aloft should also keep cloud cover to
a minimum, though some fair weather cumulus are expected in the
afternoon. Even with a few clouds, area high temperatures today
will push the upper 80s to even low 90s. Looking into the morning
hours tomorrow, remnants from convection over the Southern High
Plains today could reach central or northeast Louisiana during the
morning hours. Depending on the level of organization, better
chances for showers and thunderstorms may hold off until the
afternoon with additional daytime heating. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Today and tonight: Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather
will continue through tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a
1016mb high centered over the Appalachians that was ridging back
across our CWA. This was resulting in a light return flow and some
patchy dense fog to our southeast. Patchy dense fog will likely
spread into our southeast zones toward sunrise but a Dense Fog
Advisory is not anticipated at this time. The surface ridge will
gradually weaken through tonight but remain in place. This will help
low level moisture increase through the period. PWATs will start off
below an inch areawide but by sunrise Thursday PWATS will be back
near an inch and a half in our southwest. A southern stream
shortwave will approach our southwest zones Thursday morning and
help develop convection over southern Louisiana. Model consensus
keeps convection to the west of our CWA through sunrise. Our normal
afternoon highs run 80-83F. Temperatures this afternoon will top out
in the mid to upper 80s but a few locations in the south may reach
90F. Tonight the moisture increase will help hold temperatures in
the low to mid 60s. Our normal low temperatures run in the upper 50s
to near 60F. /22/

Thursday through next Tuesday...

The period begins with an unsettled weather pattern as a shortwave
develops into the Mid-West region. This is expected to bring a line
of showers and storms into the CWA Thursday morning into the
afternoon. Hi-Res CAM guidance indicates sufficient lapse rates and
surface instability in the ArkLaTex region, which looks to support a
MCS across the region. However, by the time it reaches the
Mississippi River, conditions look to stabilize north of the MS/LA
southern border, which will limit our potential for any significant
weather. A gusty cell cannot be ruled out, especially in southern
MS. By Friday morning, rain chances look to stick around as a
boundary hangs up across central MS just north of a high pressure in
the off of the MS coast. This will keep higher rain chances in the
forecast through late Friday evening. By the weekend, low level
southerly flow paired with a series of week shortwaves moving
through the region will keep scattered to isolated rain chances in
the forecast through Monday. Highs will remain in the lower to
middle 80s through the weekend.

By Monday, surface ridging will amplify over the southeast CONUS,
bringing drier and warmer air into the ArkLaMiss. Southwest flow
will keep the moisture at bay going into the new work week.
Additionally, increasing heights will bring our first dose of summer-
like temperatures into the region. Highs are expected to climb into
the upper 80s to low 90s by mid-week. /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions prevail across the area this afternoon and will
continue into tonight. Early Thursday morning, areas of IFR to
MVFR stratus will develop across parts of south MS and central LA,
with patchy fog also possible in south MS. Any fog is expected to
diminish by mid-morning, with ceilings rising back to VFR levels.
By late morning to afternoon, SHRA and TS are expected to spread
east across LA and AR then into western MS. Locally heavy
downpours may temporarily limit visibilities and ceilings may fall
to MVFR levels in some areas. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  86  67  80 /   0  40  40  60
Meridian      61  89  66  84 /   0  10  20  40
Vicksburg     62  83  67  80 /   0  70  50  70
Hattiesburg   63  88  67  84 /   0  20  10  30
Natchez       63  83  67  79 /   0  70  30  70
Greenville    65  84  68  79 /   0  60  70  80
Greenwood     64  86  67  80 /   0  40  60  80

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/22/AJ/DL