Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
000
FXUS62 KJAX 191723
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
123 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
No substantial changes with this update. Near record temperatures
and potentially a few sprinkles are possible along the sea breeze
north of Jacksonville this afternoon as a weak shortwave continues
to ride atop the ridge aloft. Temperatures will quickly soar into
the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Stay hydrated and keep
cool!
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
High pressure east of the area will dominate the local weather
pattern today and tonight with just some high cirrus across the
region. High temperatures will generally be in the lower 90s
except in the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast as a sea
breeze develops this afternoon. Overnight temperatures will be in
the lower to mid 60s inland and in the mid to upper 60s for the
beaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
A cold front will slowly sink southward into Georgia on Saturday,
prompting scattered showers and embedded isolated thunderstorms
across southeast Georgia. By Sunday, the front will be lingering
near the Florida/Georgia state border, allowing for precipitation
potential to spread southward through the Gainesville/St.
Augustine line. Again, scattered thunderstorms will be likely
throughout the day Sunday, and through the overnight hours area-
wide.
Temperatures will be well above normal this weekend, with SE GA
and NE FL seeing high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s
Saturday, including beach side due to southerly winds. Sunday will
be a few degrees cooler, with highs in the mid to upper 80s across
NE FL, and upper 70s to mid 80s across SE GA depending on the
front`s position.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
By Monday, the front will be south of the area, leaving the rest
of the week dry as high pressure builds behind the front. As the
front passes through on Monday, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be likely area-wide, along with below normal
temperatures for most of the region. Highs in SE GA will stay in
the upper 60s to lower 70s, with high temperatures in the 70s
across NE FL. Each day of the week will get gradually warmer, by
Wednesday highs will be in the 80s area-wide.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Light westerly winds at or below 10 kts continue inland while the
sea breeze brings easterly winds at a similar magnitude to
coastal sites. VFR conditions prevail for most airfields
throughout the period. The exception will be GNV where a mix of
low stratus and fog, likely at LIFR, advect from west to east
overnight. Chances for this stratus to reach the I-95
corridor/Jacksonville Metro are low (<10%). VFR cumulus and light
westerly flow resumes Saturday ahead of a weak frontal boundary.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Weak high pressure ridging continues over local waters through
Friday as a weak trough passes just to the north. By Saturday, a
cold frontal boundary will approach the region and stall along the
FL/GA line before making its way through Sunday through Monday
with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning. High
pressure then builds across area waters once again Tuesday and
into Wednesday.
Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk for NE FL and SE GA
beaches through at least Saturday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Max temps around 90 degrees can be expected at local climate sites
on Friday 4/19 and Saturday 4/20 and will be close record levels.
Record High Record High Average First Date
Friday 4/19 Saturday 4/20 to Reach >= 90F
Jacksonville, FL (JAX) 92/1995 92/1995 April 25
Craig Field, FL (CRG) 91/2013 91/2002 April 22
Gainesville, FL (GNV) 94/2011 94/1892 April 21
Alma, Georgia (AMG) 91/1968 93/1968 May 2
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 90 66 90 65 / 10 0 30 20
SSI 85 67 86 66 / 10 0 20 20
JAX 91 65 92 65 / 20 10 20 10
SGJ 87 64 91 65 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 90 61 90 62 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 90 61 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$