409
FXUS63 KJKL 050856
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
456 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm potential lasts through the next 7
  days.

- Above normal temperatures are forecast through Thursday. A cold
  front should pass late in the week and bring readings down to
  near or below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 456 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2024

Active weather expected across eastern Kentucky heading into the new
work week, as a weak cold front and wave of low pressure move
through the region. Isolated to scattered storms are expected to
move through the area today, especially this afternoon into early
this evening, during peak heating, and when instability will be
maximized. A weak cold front will be the trigger for showers and
storms today, but should only provide enough lift to support
isolated to scattered convection, in spite of the moisture and
instability that will be in place. After the first round of rain
ends this evening, another round of more widespread and robust
showers and storms will begin moving into our southwest counties
very late tonight into early Monday morning. This second wave of
rain will be in response to a wave of low pressure that forms along
a slow moving cold front to our southwest. As this low moves over
our area on Monday, it will allow numerous showers and scattered
storms to fire during peak heating Monday afternoon.

The higher resolution models are all showing similar solutions
supporting only isolated to scattered convection at best, so today`s
forecast was based on that data. The NAMNEST, RAP, NAM12, and HRRR
were all in pretty good agreement on the extent of todays showers
and storms. However, considering how unstable and moist the
atmosphere will be today, decided to lean more toward scattered
activity than isolated in spite of the models output. Rain chances
on Monday should be much better since a stronger system will be
moving through, and the atmosphere will still be quite moist and
unstable. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible at times on
Monday with any thunderstorms.

Temperatures will continue to average well above normal today and
Monday, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on tap. Winds
should be out of the southwest at 5 to 10 mph today and tomorrow,
and light and variable again tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 456 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2024

A persistent wet weather pattern will continue in place through
the first part of the long term forecast. Generalized west
southwest flow in the mid/upper levels will overlie low level
south southwest flow off the Gulf of Mexico. A stalled frontal
boundary is forecast to be near the Ohio River Monday evening as a
shortwave trough aloft departs to the east. The front is expected
to shift north Monday night, then back south into KY by Wednesday
morning as another shortwave trough aloft tracks by, then back
north again Wednesday night. The front will finally make a strong
push southeast through our area late in the week as a more
substantial mid/upper level trough drops southeast over the
eastern CONUS. Models are coming into better agreement for a cold
frontal passage on Thursday. The presence of the frontal boundary
along with the shortwave troughs should support multiple rounds
of showers/thunderstorms, with likely POPs now in the forecast
each period from Monday night through Wednesday night area wide.
Precip may linger into Thursday, but there is some model variation
concerning the arrival of drier mid/upper level air wrapping into
a deepening storm system passing to our north on Thursday. This
drier air aloft will be fleeting, as the upper level trough drops
into the eastern CONUS. The much colder air aloft associated with
the trough should still allow for scattered showers/thunderstorms
to bubble up at times even after cold fropa as we move into the
weekend. Specific timing of impulses enhancing this activity
remains problematic at that long time range.

Our relatively weak flow aloft presently should strengthen by
Tuesday. The increasing shear will be more supportive of organized
convection, with a resulting severe thunderstorm risk beginning
on Tuesday and lasting until our last round of convection before
cold fropa.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2024

A few rain showers were ongoing at TAF issuance near SJS and in
parts of Pike County and along the southwest VA border. These
should continue to slowly dissipate and should be gone by 10 or
11Z today. SCT to BKN middle and low level clouds will persist
through the night as well, but should scatter out by mid to late
morning across the area. Isolated to scattered rain showers are
expected to begin popping back by late morning, into the early
afternoon on Sunday, as diurnal heating commences and instability
increases. A few thunderstorms will also be possible, but all the
activity should be scattered enough to warrant no mention in the
TAFs just yet. Should this situation change, the necessary
amendments will be made. Due to rainfall that occurred near many
of the TAF sites in the past 18 to 20 hours, and with skies
clearing off some overnight, conditions will continue to be
favorable for fog formation across the area. In fact, SME has
already IFR and LIFR VSBYs due to fog, while LOZ has seen low end
MVFR conditions. Included tempo groups in each TAF to account for
fog between 8 and 13Z. Any fog that forms should mix out quickly
once the sun comes up. Any BKN clouds will also slowly scatter out
as the sun rises, and should give way to persistent SCT coverage
by 16 or 17Z Sunday. Winds will remain light and variable
overnight, and should increase to 5 to 10kts out of the southwest
by 15 or 16Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR