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000
FXUS63 KLBF 112313
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
613 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm and dry with temperatures well above normal through
  the weekend and into Monday.

- The persistent warm and dry conditions will create elevated to
  near critical fire weather conditions into Monday.

- A strong low will move out of Colorado and through Nebraska
  Monday night into Tuesday with strong gusty winds and
  potential for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Lots of sunshine across Nebraska this afternoon, and with the dry
airmass efficient mixing is bringing gusty winds to the surface.
Anticipate gusts of 40 to 45mph will continue through the afternoon
along and east of Hwy 183, tapering to 30 to 35 mph westward to Hwy
83, then 25 to 30 mph heading into the panhandle. However winds will
quickly diminish with loss of heating toward sunset and become light
and variable overnight as high pressure at the surface moves in
builds in and moves slowly across moves cross the region from and
drifts eastward across the region. Lows tonight will generally be
around 30F.As the upper ridge continues to build in from the west
and the surface high slides off to our east, we will remain dry and
deep southerly flow will begin the process of bringing much warmer
air into the region from the south. Highs tomorrow will generally
range from the middle 70s across southwest Nebraska to the middle
60s northeast toward O`Neill, and lows Friday night will be mild
with readings only dipping down into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Confidence in the forecast through the weekend remains high as
ensemble guidance in good agreement and there has been little change
in trends over the last several days. The big ridge over the Rockies
will move into the Plains by the weekend before being pushed
eastward by a strong low moving in from the Pacific coast. This will
bring us dry conditions with a notable warm-up through the weekend.
Temperatures aloft will rise well into 90th percentile by Saturday
and EFI/SoT guidance shows a good signal for warmth through the
weekend and spilling into Monday. The end result will be high
temperatures by Friday rising into the 70s for much of central and
western Nebraska, followed by widespread readings into the 80s for
the weekend. It will also be just a bit breezy with the warm-up as
probabilistic guidance shows 50th percentile gusts of generally 20
to 30 mph. The combination of temperatures well above normal, dry
weather, and breezy winds will continue our fire weather concerns
with elevated to near critical conditions for portions of central
and western Nebraska into Monday.

A strong low, vertically stacked Colorado low will be moving into
Nebraska by late Monday/Monday night before crossing the
eastern part of the state on Tuesday. This will push the warm
upper ridge axis to our east and bring an increasing chance for
showers and thunderstorms by Monday night. This is going to be a
very dynamic system with strong gusty winds and potential for
widespread rainfall with thunderstorms, though much will depend
on the exact track of the low including rainfall amounts,
placement, and any severe weather threat for central and western
Nebraska. Expect the forecast to change as new data becomes
available and adjustments are made.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR will continue through the forecast period for western and
north central Nebraska terminals as a few high clouds stream
over the area. Gusty northwest winds will taper around sunset
this evening, become light and variable overnight, and
strengthen again out of the south by mid-morning tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Critical fire weather concerns will continue into this evening along
and east of Hwy 83 with gusty winds and low humidity. However
conditions will quickly improve as winds diminish quickly this
evening with loss of daytime heating. Moisture recovery overnight
will not be very good with maximum humidity generally no higher than
60 to 70 percent. Dry weather with low humidity are expected to
persist across the region through the weekend and into Monday with
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. However
winds will be notably lighter and confidence in wind gusts at or
above 25 mph during the afternoons is not high. Therefore do
not plan to issue any additional fire weather headlines at this
time, but will continue to reevaluate as new data becomes
available with potential for strong gusty winds to accompany low
pressure moving out of Colorado late on Monday..

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ206-208-
209-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Snively
FIRE WEATHER...MBS