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000
FXUS64 KLCH 172036
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
336 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A very similar pattern will continue across the forecast area
during the period. High pressure at the surface will ridge across
from the east and lower pressure and any surface boundaries
hanging up to the northwest. Therefore, warm and muggy conditions
will continue with the southerly flow off the Gulf.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy, however, not really expecting any
significant or widespread shower activity. A series of vort maxes
will move overhead in the southwest flow, yet, enough capping
should hold to preclude the shower activity.

Of other note, with some relaxing of the surface winds overnight,
patchy fog will be possible. At this point, the boundary layer
winds will stay up enough above the surface to keep some mixing
going and keep any widespread dense fog from forming.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Little change of thinking in the longterm forecast with the morning
suite of guidance. Models now indicate a series of weak shortwave
pulses sliding across the southern US, rather than one main stronger
and slower moving pulse. This doesn`t appear to impact timing or
rain chances from previous thinking, though. The first of the two
waves arrives to southeast Texas on Friday morning, working to break
down high pressure entrenched over the GoM. Rain chances increase
Saturday morning (start of the longterm period) with the nearing of
the main shortwave trof and an attendant cold front.

The front will slowly drift southward from the north and west on
Saturday with PoPs increasing slowly but markedly into Sunday when
the front crosses the region. Forecast QPF Saturday and Sunday has
remained similar to previous thinking: generally 0.50 to 1.00 inches
or less.

The front slides off to the east into Monday with high pressure
building in thereafter. Low rain chances are expected Tuesday and
Thursday, however a few weak showers will be possible during the day
Wednesday with a brief period of decreasing heights aloft overtop a
pooling moist airmass.

Slightly above temperatures Saturday will give way to cooler temps
on Sunday due to cool airmass moving in and cloud cover/rain cooled
air. Rebounding temps take place Monday with temps in the mid 70s
and near 80 on Tuesday. Temps will inch upwards each day Wednesday
and Thursday.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Modest southeast winds will continue to bring in moisture through
the afternoon hours with clouds developing below a cap at
borderline MVFR/VFR levels.

During the night, winds will decrease at the surface with good
moisture in place. Low ceilings will again develop and lower
through MVFR to IFR levels before daybreak. The overall gradient
and winds are expected to be a little weaker than last night, and
therefore expect some visibility restrictions in the 2 to 5 mile
range from patchy fog.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A similar pattern through the end of the week with a surface high
off the Florida Atlantic coast ridging into the coastal waters
with lower pressure across the Southern Plains. This will result
in light to occasionally modest southerly winds into the beginning
of the weekend.

A surface front will enter the region over the weekend with an
increase in shower activity.

This front will move across the coastal waters late Saturday night
into Sunday morning with winds becoming offshore that will persist
into early next week.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  85  65  86 /  10  20   0  10
LCH  71  83  69  85 /  10  10   0   0
LFT  72  85  70  87 /  10  10   0   0
BPT  71  84  69  85 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...07