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000
FXUS64 KLCH 131418
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
918 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A beautiful spring day is underway this morning with high pressure
just to our east yielding mostly clear skies and light, variable
winds. Temperatures will climb to near 80 by this afternoon. No
changes were made to the inherited forecast this morning.

Jones

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Dry (relatively speaking) weather can be expected for the next
several days with a slight warming (and moistening) trend
continuing. Aloft we have a ridge that will build in over the area
which will do its part in keeping us rain free and warmer. At the
surface, we have the surface high pressure that is currently over
the eastern part of the area that will move further off to the
east over the course of the day. We will see a return of southerly
flow as a result which will lead to more humid conditions and
more cloud cover. Also starting tonight, and what we could see for
consecutive nights from now, is patchy fog. While the issuance of
a Dense Fog Advisory is not expected at this time, fog could
potentially complicate early morning commutes to and fro.

Over the beginning of the work week, an upper level low will work
its way across the Desert SW then into the Central Plains, pushing a
front across there as it does. There is an isolated chance of seeing
light showers in our area on Tuesday, however not enough of a chance
to make it into the grids at the moment.

Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Broad ridging from the western Atlantic extends west across the Gulf
of Mexico by Tuesday morning while a strong surface low centers over
the Western Plains. An associated cold front and troughing deepen
south to the Tx / Mexico border along with broad troughing.
Naturally, this setup creates enhanced onshore flow across SETX and
SWLA with daytime temperatures trending toward the mid 80’s for many
locations inland.

With the Midwest low’s eastward progression halted near the eastern
Great Lakes due to expansive ridging off the Canadian Maritimes, the
associated cold front begins to weaken near the ARKLATEX region.
Signals for precipitation begin to drop significantly over this area
with less dynamics available. That said, following surface high
pressure will push the relatively dry cold front offshore by
Thursday evening. Hereafter, the pattern becomes unsettled as the
remnant front becomes a stationary boundary across the central Gulf.
 Through the early weekend a surface low attempts to develop over
the Colorado Rockies while thermal troughing over NE Mexico deepens
into the southern CONUS. Long range guidance, coupled with CPC
analysis indicates these two features may interact toward the end of
the weekend and beyond the scope of the forecast. In the meanwhile,
confidence remains strong for little if any precipitation to occur
through Thursday night with even the most favorable signals
remaining to the northern tier counties and parishes.

Kowalski/30

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Winds are currently light and variable with ground fog at some
sites and generally clear skies. Over the day, we will see winds
pick up and become southerly as a high pressure moves off to the
east. Winds over the late afternoon to early evening period could
be gusty. Winds will eventually settle over the latter part of
the evening. Towards the end and beyond this TAF cycle, we will
see some mid to upper level CIGs return to the forecast, however
it`s nothing concerning.
Stigger/87

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Light and somewhat variable flow, courtesy of nearby high
pressure, will shift more southerly today as the high quickly
moves east of the region. Onshore winds will begin to strengthen
by early next week as low pressure forms and deepens over the
Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  55  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  80  62  79  65 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  82  61  82  64 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  80  63  81  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...87