289
FXUS64 KLIX 120844
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
344 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Upper ridging is beginning to set up over the eastern gulf and
western Atlantic this morning. The upper trough out west is now
starting to become oriented N-S as the upper ridge builds into the
NW CONUS. This will eventually help to eject several strong
disturbances eastward. The upper trough becomes progressive as this
short wave exits the base of its trough Monday. This will help this
system maintain its dynamics at all levels. The instability is not
in place yet but will be as the synoptic warm front pulls through
the area later today providing deep moisture and a strong ThetaE
gradient that should stall from Mobile to the NW. This will help set
the stage for late in the day Monday for training heavy rainfall
bouts. Most of this activity occurs late Monday and overnight but
there will still be sh/ts moving through the area today through
Monday. The activity that moves through today through Monday will
just prime the area for Monday. Some totals that are coming in range
from 4 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts and WPC has also
indicated a moderate risk of flooding rainfall over the eastern
portion of the area. This looks valid but could move northward or at
least be stretched northward depending on how this situation is
resolved over the next 24 hours. We have contemplated a Flash Flood
Watch to start either by noon or late in the day Monday. Since this
is late in the day on Monday, we will discuss further on placement
and timing as conditions become more clear before setting the Watch
in play. The other contribution from this system will be the
possibility of severe storms, and this looks credible as well so
there is not disagreement with the slight risk of severe from SPC
either. But the messy conditions today through Monday before the
main system moves in will also need to be watched as one or two
storms could become rogue along and after the warm front moves
through today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

This first upper trough actually passes the area by Tuesday and a
cold front will move to the coast before stalling. This front also
begins to back up Wed and this whole process looks to start over
again as another upper trough out west digs southward causing H3
split flow across this boundary. This could present another heavy
rain event toward the end of this week as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

VFR through much of today but cigs will slowly fall into MVFR levels
before midnight and into IFR around sunrise Monday. There will be
some SHRA and TSRA around today and some terminals may get some of
this activity. For today, the greatest chances will be found around
MCB but BTR could also see this occur. The precip will be found at
more locations tonight but should be mainly -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Winds will begin to rise from the SE to around 15-20kt today as an
warm front moves north. Although the general wind speeds will remain
15-20kt, Strong/severe storms along with widespread strong winds
will be possible Monday through Tuesday as disturbances move over
the northern gulf. The first system will move out by Tuesday and a
cold front should stall along the coast or just offshore causing
winds to temporarily develop from the north, but this boundary
should move north by Wed causing southerly winds to re-establish.
There is a possiblity that strong disturbances impact the northern
gulf waters again toward the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  65  82  65 /  40  80  90  70
BTR  84  72  88  70 /  40  60  70  60
ASD  84  71  85  70 /  20  50  90  80
MSY  84  75  86  73 /  20  50  80  80
GPT  83  72  83  70 /  20  60  90  80
PQL  84  70  84  70 /  20  50  90  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE