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000
FXUS65 KLKN 170727
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1227 AM PDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry today with northwesterly winds of 5 to 15 mph
gusting up to 25 mph. A few degrees cooler across northern NV
this afternoon, otherwise temperatures will trend warmer across
the region this week, with highs in the 70s this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night. Broad trough energy
settles in over the Pacific NW and north-central U.S. today, with
the base of the trough clipping northern NV. The CWA remains dry
today, however most of northern and central NV will have
northwesterly winds of 5-15mph gusting to around 25 mph today.
Across northern NV cooler air under the approaching trough will
result in highs this afternoon running 5-8 degrees lower than
yesterday, with most valley locations generally in the upper 50s
to low 60s. Central NV locations, generally near and south of the
Highway 50 corridor, will be warmer by up to 5 degrees from
yesterday, with mid 60s to low 70s. Tonight into Thursday the
trough across the NW U.S. exits eastward leaving a warmer near-
zonal flow over NV with continued dry conditions across the CWA.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday

Quiet pattern will remain through Friday, but will look to take a
brief break for the weekend as ridging flattens in response to
downstream troughing before becoming re-established for the start
of the new work week. Timing wise, by Friday evening a large
northern stream upper level low will be located over northern
plains just across the Canadian border, as a weak southern stream
upper trough moves on shore over southern California, the inter
play between these features may allow a weak deformation zone to
drift into Nevada for the weekend. Models still show that this
zone could serve as a focus for a few isolated showers with the
highest probability across eastern NV as it gets additional weak
lift from the shortwave upper trough. Model precipitation
probabilities have been trending drier with most recent runs with
shower chances dropping to 10% to 15% with recent runs. This
deformation zone looks to fully wash out by Sunday evening. Monday
through Wednesday, models have come in to much better agreement
with the upper pattern, with the GFS and ECMWF now showing a quick
moving upper level ridge transit Nevada for Monday and Tuesday
which will keep Spring like conditions around. However, the next
system will begin to approach the Pacific NW coast Tuesday
morning. This system at this time doesn’t look to well organized,
but could bring a 205 chance of light showers across northern NV
by Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Temperatures and Winds: Spring
like temperatures will continue for the Silver State through next
Wednesday as daytime highs plateau in the upper 60s to low 80s.
Overnight lows will follow a similar trend with lows hovering in
the upper 30s to upper 40s. Winds relax as pressure gradient eases
under the influence of a split upper flow. Winds will be
generally out of the W to NW but speeds will be 5 to 15 MPH with
gusts up to 25 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for all terminals over the
next 24 hour period. Mid and upper-level cloud cover is expected
but dry conditions will persist through Wednesday. A cold front
moving through tonight will bring northwest winds to much of
central and northern Nevada Wednesday but sustained wind speeds
should remain at or below 10 knots and gusts of 20 knots or less
during the day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Many streams, creeks and rivers across northern and
central Nevada have elevated flows. Dry conditions are expected
the remainder of the week, however temperatures will be trending
warmer which will again help to accelerate the melting of the
remaining mid and high elevation snowpack.

The Bruneau River is currently in action stage, with the flow
expected to slowly rise, possibly up to the low end of minor flood
stage today.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is currently in action stage
and expected to slowly rise, but remain below minor flood stage
for the remainder of the week.

Marys River above Hot Springs Creek near Deeth is currently
entering action stage, and expected to slowly rise today but not
reach flood stage.

The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is currently in action stage and
expected to gradually rise today, but remain below minor flood
stage.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City is expected to remain around
8.0 feet (the low end of minor flood stage) over the next several
days.

Wildhorse Dam is currently at action stage and is expected to
gradually rise, but remain below minor flood stage over the coming
days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

96/98/93