Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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691 FXUS64 KLUB 040526 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1226 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The low stratus cloud deck is beginning to clear out early this afternoon across the South Plains and far southwest Texas Panhandle. The low clouds will continue break across the remainder of the area this afternoon. With the early clearing, temperatures are quickly warming into the 80s while temperatures under the cloud cover remain much cooler in the 60s to lower 70s. Thus, there is a strong differential heating boundary present across the area today and will be a potential location for additional storm development. As of 2 PM CDT, the sharpening dryline is present along a line from Seminole to Sundown to Muleshoe and bending westward into New Mexico as lee cyclogenesis strengthens in east southeast Colorado. Dewpoints east of the dryline range from the upper 50s to upper 60s. Satellite imagery shows low level moisture advecting northward with the southeast surface winds. Thunderstorms (a few severe) have already begun to develop east of Big Spring and just south of I-20. In addition, towering cumulus clouds are beginning to develop along the dryline across the South Plains. Significant instability is present east of dryline this afternoon with SBCAPE values in excess of 3000+ J/kg and modest effective bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots, which is capable of support strong to severe supercells. Steep midlevel lapse rates and strong buoyancy will support very large hail up to baseball size and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. A tornado or two is possible, with the best environment across the Rolling Plains where the differential heating boundary is present with abundant low level moisture and east southeast low level mean flow. A few storm splits may be possible with the right movers headed southeast, potentially along the aforementioned pre-existing boundary. These right moving storms would pose the greatest threat for a tornado, especially this evening as low level shear increases. Most storms will be moving east northeast this afternoon and evening with slower storm motions around 10 to 20 mph, which could pose a localized flash flooding threat. Thunderstorms should move east out of the forecast area late this evening before Midnight. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The severe weather threat will continue into Saturday. Winds behind a cold front will switch to generally out of the east will bring sufficient Gulf moisture to the area. Instability may take some time to develop given stubborn morning cloud cover, however it is expected to reach similar magnitudes as today, favoring the southern South and Rolling Plains. While forcing is not overly impressive, an upper shortwave should be more than enough to trigger potentially severe storms during Saturday afternoon/evening hours. Main threats include large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rain/flooding. While tornadoes are unlikely, they cannot be completely be ruled out. Much of the precipitation should move out of the forecast area by midnight. The active weather seen over the past several days will finally begin to quiet down on Sunday as weak upper ridging builds over the region. A fast moving upper trough on Monday brings a brief return of shower and thunderstorm chances. GFS/NAM timing (moving precipitation out of the area by late-morning) is generally favored at this time given the relatively stronger steering flow. As such, any severe weather threat would be limited. A mostly zonal flow pattern aloft and westerly surface winds look to allow for warm and dry conditions to prevail through much of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 FROPA remains on track from 11-13Z ahead of persistent MVFR ceilings and gusty N winds. TS potential is looking quite low for most of the day until after 5 PM or so and mainly at LBB where the northern fringes of TS could impact the terminal. Confidence in this scenario is too low for a mention in the TAF at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...93