851
ACUS11 KWNS 081602
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081601
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-081730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0696
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024

Areas affected...Southwest/south-central MO...northeast
OK...northwest AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 202...

Valid 081601Z - 081730Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 202
continues.

SUMMARY...With additional storms gradually developing south of WW
202, and the overall environment becoming increasingly favorable for
a tornado threat during the afternoon, a new tornado watch that
replaces the southern part of WW 202 will be needed prior to its 19Z
scheduled expiration.

DISCUSSION...While the bulk of supercell clustering has persisted in
central MO, additional storms have gradually developed near the
OK/KS/MO border area, just southwest of WW 202. This activity is
within the low-level warm theta-e advection regime, east of the
southeast-sagging cold front that lags in southeast KS to central
OK. This development has been slow and sub-severe thus far. But as
additional boundary-layer warming continues, especially across
eastern OK, along with strengthening low-level convergence as the
front impinges, this leading activity should intensify during the
early afternoon. While very large hail and isolated severe gusts
will be possible, the presence of 35-45 kt low-level southwesterlies
per SGF/INX/SRX VWP data will yield favorable hodograph enlargement
for a few tornadic storms. Potential for a strong tornado may become
maximized near the composite outflow/warm front across southwest to
south-central MO.

..Grams.. 05/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   37899253 37769168 37009133 36619138 36059259 35839431
            35859505 36059555 36539550 37209486 37749403 37879368
            37899253