Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC) Issued by NWS
000
ACUS11 KWNS 221822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221821
FLZ000-222045-
Mesoscale Discussion 0282
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Areas affected...far southern FL toward the Keys
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 221821Z - 222045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms from far southern Florida toward the Keys may
remain capable of producing waterspouts, with an eventual
possibility of a brief tornado.
DISCUSSION...Storms have increased in coverage near an east-west
oriented boundary situation over far southern FL. North of this
boundary, surface winds remain out of the east/northeast, and
through a relatively deep layer. VWPs near Miami show around 2 km
depth of east to southeasterly winds. Farther south toward Key West,
winds have veered to southerly, and this area is also within the
instability plume with MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg.
Although instability is less over land, enhanced vertical vorticity
exists along the boundary, and the gradual increase in theta-e, as
well as increasing flow aloft, could yield a more favorable
environment for a brief tornado with time.
VWPs and objective analysis generally indicate 0-1 SRH below 100
m2/s2, however, these values appear to be slowly increasing. In
addition, as the cluster of storms persists, further shear
enhancement could occur due to convectively induced pressure falls.
At this time, a watch does not appear necessary due to the low-end
nature of the threat as well as minimal land area.
..Jewell/Hart.. 03/22/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
LAT...LON 25118035 24948056 24888137 24938159 25068164 25308144
25498111 25538080 25498022 25358019 25118035