586
FXUS64 KMEG 031732 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1232 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The latest KNQA radar scan shows a decaying MCS slowly propagating
east into eastern Arkansas at this hour. No lightning is
currently detected, but that will likely change over the next
hour or so as the atmosphere destabilizes. Downstream of the MCS,
isolated to scattered showers have developed south of I-40. This
activity should continue to fill in over the next couple of hours
as daytime heating becomes maximized.

Another area of convection has fired up to our south over the past
hour and is slowly lifting into north Mississippi. As a result,
increased PoPs mainly across north Mississippi to account for
latest trends. Hi-res model guidance continues to struggle with
the evolution of the aforementioned decaying MCS. Nonetheless,
the MCS will likely turn into an MCV by late afternoon and then
rotate northeast into middle TN through this evening. A few strong
storms could occur, especially near the TN River, where
instability will be greatest.

Made significant changes to PoPs from now through tomorrow
morning. Increased PoPs along and south of I-40 through early
afternoon, increased PoPs this evening across west Tennessee, and
decreased areawide PoPs through the overnight hours. Due to heavy
cloud cover along I-40 this morning, went ahead and also
decreased high temperatures a few degrees. The rest of the
forecast is on track.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A series of upper-level disturbances will move across the Lower
Mississippi Valley over the next 7 days. This will result in the
potential for showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures
will average near normal to slightly above normal with highs in
the upper 70s to middle 80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends early this morning show
showers and thunderstorms occurring near the Tennessee River. This
activity is associated with a shortwave trough beginning to lift
away from the Mid-South. Meanwhile, a couple of MCS`s are
producing showers and thunderstorms over portions of Northeast
Texas and Eastern Oklahoma. A mild and humid airmass is in place
across the area with temperatures as of 3 AM CDT in the 60s.

Short-term models including CAMs indicate nocturnal convection should
continue to diminish over the area this morning. Another weak
shortwave trough combined with leftover convective boundaries
and diurnal instability may be sufficient to produce additional showers
and thunderstorms during peak afternoon heating, especially east
of the Mississippi River. HREF Grand Ensemble spread indicates
surface-based CAPE values ranging generally between 1000-1800
J/kg while 0-6 km shear is expected to remain relatively weak
around 20 kts. A couple of strong thunderstorms containing gusty
winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall may be possible
this afternoon.

Subtle shortwaves within weak southwest flow aloft combined with
an unstable airmass will produce additional showers and
thunderstorms across the Mid-South into the upcoming weekend. A
small area of 0-6 km Bulk Shear values between 25-30 kts combined
with sufficient instability may result the development of a few
strong thunderstorms to perhaps an isolated severe thunderstorm late
Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening as a cold front
approaches northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel.
Confidence in the overall severe threat remains low for Saturday
due to a lack of model consensus this morning.

Long-term models indicate an active and unsettled pattern will
continue across the Lower Mississippi Valley next week as the area
continues to remain within broad southwest flow aloft. Increasing
shear combined with a warm and unstable airmass suggest a potential
for organized strong to severe thunderstorms may exist towards
the middle of next week. This potential threat will continue to
be monitored in subsequent model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

TSRA potential has decreased at MEM given a weakening upstream MCV
and stabilizing effects of -RA and cloud cover. However, expect
scattered SHRA to increase in coverage over north central and
northeast MS, aided by surface heating and convergence along the
northern periphery of an MCS over central MS.

VFR over east central AR should spread into the MEM by late
afternoon, and continue through the late evening inbound push.
Clearing aloft and weak surface winds will favor low stratus
formation at all TAF sites prior to 12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...PWB