948
FXUS62 KMFL 160519
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
119 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 731 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Most of South Florida remains in a lull as far as convection is
concerned as the air mass has been stabilized by showers and
thunderstorms that formed this afternoon. This lull in activity
should remain in place across most areas through the rest of the
evening hours. During the overnight hours, some of the CAMs are
suggesting the potential of shower and thunderstorm activity
redeveloping towards the predawn hours and into Thursday morning.
An isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out especially across the
Lake Okeechobee region closer to the front during this time frame.
The strongest storms could contain heavy downpours, gusty winds,
and small hail. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from
the lower 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to around 80 along
the east and west coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

A frontal boundary attendant to a mid-level trough will slowly
advect southward and approach south-central Florida on Thursday,
creating a slight wind shift to a westerly direction over most of
the region and possibly WNW for northern portions of the CWA. This
steadily westerly flow will become brisk in the low to mid levels
and breezy at the surface, likely limiting the infiltration of an
east coast sea breeze. With that in mind, any convection is expected
to be confined to the east coast metro areas or the nearshore
Atlantic waters even if a sea breeze boundary forms. While the
overall pattern will involve weak forcing (broad longwave mid-to-
upper level trough and weak frontal boundary), there will be
sufficient moisture, surface heating, and cooler temps aloft (-8
to -9 deg C at 500mb) to support a few thunderstorms. These
storms could become strong to severe as well, especially near the
Lake Okeechobee region this afternoon and evening where forcing
will be strongest and temps aloft will be coolest, creating the
largest instability in the area. The Storm Prediction Center has
placed the lake region into a marginal risk because of this. The
trough will be exiting the area during the latter half of the
Thursday, but some convective showers and storms will remain
possible through most of the day before the axis shifts offshore
and ridging begins to rebuild.

With elevated moisture and an ongoing hot pattern, dew points will
be on the higher side in the mid to upper 70s and the westerly flow
will place the west coast in the low 90s with the east coast in the
mid to upper 90s. This combination of hot temps and higher dew
points will spark peak heat indices into the triple digits and could
rise as high as 104-108 degrees for a short duration for the east
coast metro. This could necessitate a Heat Advisory at some point,
but at this time the highest indices are not expected to be of long
enough duration (2 or more hours) to issue one and cloud cover
from convection should help limit this as well but this will be
monitored. West coast areas are not expected to see heat indices
quite as high as the east coast but could still hit 102-106
degrees. Overall, whether an advisory is issued or not, anyone
sensitive to heat should plan to avoid extended time outside or to
take cooling breaks and stay hydrated if required to be outside.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The main story through this forecast period will be the potential
for hazardous heat which will linger through most of the weekend.
Most of South Florida could experience heat necessitating at
least a Heat Advisory through Saturday and this potential will be
monitored through the week. Afternoon high temperatures are
expected to be in the 90s area-wide each afternoon. Lower to mid
90s will be more likely for coastal areas with portions of
interior South Florida potentially approaching the upper 90s or
low 100s. Overnight low temperatures along the east coast metro
mid to late week could struggle to fall below 80 degrees and even
portions of the Naples metro may not fall below the upper 70s.
This could lead to a period of several days where relentless
sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief overnight could lead
to escalating heat illness risk.

By the weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic
off the Mid-Atlantic states with the potential for a southward
advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move
into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the heat
late in the period. If the front stalls to the north, the excessive
heat risk could linger through the end of the forecast period as
southerly flow continues. Guidance is beginning to trend towards the
amplification of the mid-level trough along the Atlantic coast of
Florida late in the period that could potentially provide extra
support to push the boundary through the area to close out the
extended forecast period early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

There will be a chance of reduced flight categories in scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning over all
terminals. The risk of storms will decrease for most terminals by
late morning, but another round of thunderstorms will be possible
later this afternoon particularly at KPBI. Winds will generally
favor a W-SW direction through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 109 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Winds have fallen below advisory levels as of late this morning with
seas expected at 2-3 feet across all local waters through tomorrow.
There will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over
the Atlantic waters today and tomorrow, which could create locally
chaotic seas at times and gusty winds. Mainly benign conditions are
then expected for the end of the week.&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 109 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

A moderate rip current risk will linger today as winds only slowly
subside and onshore flow in the seabreeze zone continues. The risk
for rip currents should lessen towards the end of the week as the
low across the Mid-Atlantic moves further away.&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  94  77  93 /  30  60  10  20
West Kendall     77  96  74  95 /  30  50   0  20
Opa-Locka        78  96  76  95 /  30  60  10  20
Homestead        78  94  76  93 /  40  40  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  79  93  76  91 /  30  70  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  78  93  76  92 /  20  70  10  20
Pembroke Pines   79  96  77  96 /  30  70  10  20
West Palm Beach  75  93  73  93 /  30  70  10  20
Boca Raton       77  94  75  93 /  20  70  10  20
Naples           79  90  77  91 /  30  40   0  10

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 109 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

A moderate rip current risk will linger today as winds only slowly
subside and onshore flow in the seabreeze zone continues. The risk
for rip currents should lessen towards the end of the week as the
low across the Mid-Atlantic moves further away.&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  94  77  93 /  30  60  10  20
West Kendall     77  96  74  95 /  30  50   0  20
Opa-Locka        78  96  76  95 /  30  60  10  20
Homestead        78  94  76  93 /  40  40  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  79  93  76  91 /  30  70  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  78  93  76  92 /  20  70  10  20
Pembroke Pines   79  96  77  96 /  30  70  10  20
West Palm Beach  75  93  73  93 /  30  70  10  20
Boca Raton       77  94  75  93 /  20  70  10  20
Naples           79  90  77  91 /  30  40   0  10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            94  77  93  80 /  30  10  30   0
West Kendall     96  74  95  77 /  20  10  20   0
Opa-Locka        96  77  95  79 /  40  10  30   0
Homestead        94  76  93  79 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  94  77  91  80 /  40  10  20   0
N Ft Lauderdale  94  77  93  79 /  40  10  20   0
Pembroke Pines   97  77  96  80 /  40  10  30   0
West Palm Beach  93  74  92  76 /  50  10  20   0
Boca Raton       95  75  93  78 /  40  10  20  10
Naples           90  77  91  79 /  30   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...Carr