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000
FXUS62 KMLB 141858
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
258 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

...Dry Weather Continues into the Workweek...
...Well Above Normal Temperatures Return Midweek...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Currently-Monday...  High pressure (1024mb) remains in place over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the state of Florida with onshore
east to southeast flow across east central Florida. Current
temperatures are in the upper 70s to mid 80s with plenty of sunshine
and dry conditions. Temperatures are forecast to not be as cold
as last night with light predominate onshore flow in place but
still remain about 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of
year. Lows are forecast to reach the low 50s to low 60s with
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Similar weather is expected
to start off the workweek as high pressure settles over the
western Atlantic with the mid/upper level ridge axis expected to
build over the Gulf of Mexico. East to southeast winds at 5-10mph
with gusts to 15-20mph are forecast into Monday afternoon with
high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and sunny skies.

Mon Night-Tue Night...The "troughy" mid-level pattern over the
western Atlc/Bahamas slowly translates seaward as shortwave ridging
over the GoMex/Deep South slides eastward across the FL peninsula
and southeast U.S. The mid-level flow stays mainly N/NW with
occasional shortwave impulses sliding southward overtop of the
ridging. At the surface, high pressure centered over the western
Atlc with associated east-west ridging across the central FL
peninsula will gradually build northward. Mainly an onshore (ESE/SE)
component of winds will be forecast. PCloudy skies to continue along
with dry conditions. Mon night`s lows in the U50s to L60s, with
temps near 80F at the coast Tue afternoon and L-M80s (few U80s well
inland) across the interior. Milder Tue night with mins in the L-
M60s areawide.

Wed-Sun...Mid-level ridging over the GoMex gets squashed back down
as mid-level troughing glides across the Deep South and FL
peninsula, but does recover slightly again late Fri-Sun. The flow
does become mainly zonal for most of the period. Surface high
pressure ridging northward weakens and gets pushed further
south/seaward as a weak trough plows into it with some reinforcing
dry air moving down the peninsula. A once more formidable boundary
passage into the central peninsula remains on hold as ridging holds
weather systems at bay to the north. Continue to keep conditions
mostly dry well into the extended. Very warm temperatures forecast
with M80s at the coast (perhaps a few U80s here) and U80s-L90s
interior. There will be daily sea breezes with a little relief near
the coast, but these could be delayed a bit later in the period.
Overnight lows well into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. East to
southeast winds at 5-10kts will become light and variable overnight
and then increase into Monday afternoon from the east/southeast at 5-
10kts with mostly clear skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Currently-Monday... Favorable boating conditions are forecast
through Monday as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic.
East to southeast winds at 8-12kts are forecast with seas
building to 1-2ft nearshore and 3-4ft over the Gulf Stream.

Mon Night-Fri...Generally favorable boating conditions with dry
conditions forecast. Initial east-west ridge axis across the local
waters will slip northward into mid-week. ESE-SE winds may veer
offshore Wed/Thu overnight periods as the pgrad is weak, though
forecast winds speeds AOB 15 kts as a weaker pgrad remains in place.
Seas 2-3 ft thru Tue afternoon, then 3-4 ft Tue night-Wed night,
finally AOB 3 ft again Thu-Fri. Daily sea breeze expected to form.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Currently-Monday... Fire sensitive weather is forecast to continue
Monday as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. Minimum
RH values are forecast to drop into the low 30s to low 40s inland
west of I-95 and the upper 40s to mid 50s to the east along the
coast Monday afternoon. Onshore east to southeast winds will
continue into midweek at around 10kts Monday afternoon. A Moderate
risk for Significant Fire Potential is outlooked for the central
Florida again Monday.

Tue-Fri...Onshore winds thru at least mid-week as high pressure
continues its hold over the area. The airmass remains fairly dry
overall into the extended with no appreciable precip forecast.
Temperatures continue a warming trend well into the 80s mid-late
week with some L90s likely across the interior during this time. 20-
FT winds 10-15 mph on Tue/Wed, lighter and perhaps more variable
Thu/Fri. Daily sea breeze at the coast expected. Lowest min RH
values over the interior: 30-35pct Tue, 35-40pct Wed/Thu, 30-35pct
again on Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  56  82  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  59  86  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  58  79  64  81 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  56  81  62  83 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  60  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  58  86  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  60  86  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  55  80  61  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fehling
LONG TERM...Sedlock
AVIATION...Fehling