154
FXUS64 KMOB 201131
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
631 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours with the exception of
some localized patchy fog late tonight across portions of
southeast Mississippi. Calm or light and variable winds this
morning become easterly to southeasterly 5 to 10 knots today. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 518 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 518 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Dry conditions will persist through Tuesday as deep ridging
remains across Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida
panhandle. Subsidence from the riding should prevent any showers
or storms from developing, and also allow for daytime temperatures
to heat up today and Tuesday. Skies should be mostly clear at
night and partly cloudy during the day. Primarily light easterly
winds today and tonight becoming southeasterly on Tuesday. Patchy
fog is expected to develop across Stone, George, Perry and
southwest Greene counties late tonight.

Temperatures will remain 1-5 degrees above seasonal norms, with
highs today and Tuesday in the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows
ranging from 62 to 66 degrees interior areas and from 67 to 72
degrees close to the coast. A Moderate risk of rip currents today
becomes Low on Tuesday. /22

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 518 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

The forecast remains dry and warm through at least Thursday.
Ridging aloft continues to nose into the region from the
southwestern Gulf through Wednesday. The ridge begins to flatten
into the Gulf Thursday into the weekend as a series of shortwaves
skirt along the periphery of the ridge. Meanwhile, a surface high
over the western Atlantic maintains a firm grip over parts of the
Southeast and eastern Gulf through at least Friday and potentially
into the early part of the weekend. A weak front associated with
the first shortwave will attempt to drift into the MidSouth, but
likely won`t make it near our region given the influence of deep
layer ridging. The surface high`s grasp over the local area should
keep the bulk of the showers and storms further to our north on
Friday. We maintained the 15-25% POPs on Friday afternoon, but our
confidence in these POPs is rather low at this time given the
nearby ridging. The best chance for showers and storms over the
weekend will be generally north of the Highway 84 corridor in the
afternoon hours and early evening hours.

Beach Note: Rip current risk remains LOW through Friday with the
RCMOS probabilities also remaining LOW through the weekend. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 518 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Light easterly winds today become light southeasterly to
southerly through the remainder of the week. Seas generally
remaining 2 feet or less through the period. No significant
hazards to small craft are expected. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      89  68  87  67  86  68  87  70 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   87  70  86  70  84  71  85  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      84  72  83  71  83  72  84  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   88  63  89  63  90  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  89  65  90  65  90  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Camden      87  63  89  64  89  66  89  67 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Crestview   89  65  89  63  89  65  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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