Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 270542
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
142 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Forecast on track this evening with little to no changes. Clouds
are clearing from west to east and precip is coming to and end.
Only minor changes to hourly dewpoints and temps in order  to
match up with latest obs. Patchy fog likely through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Key Messages:

1. Rain will move out from west to east and diminish during the
evening hours.

2. Clearing skies from southwest to northeast Wednesday. Near
average highs in the 60s to about 70.

Discussion:

Late this afternoon winds are still strong out of the southeast
ahead of a cold front moving into middle Tennessee. The strong
southeast flow will gradually diminish this afternoon and evening.
Have just cancelled the High Wind Warning with gusts now less than
about 40 mph in the eastern Tennessee mountains. Showers and a
possible thunderstorm will continue a few more hours into the
evening before shifting eastward.

Overnight through the early morning hours Wednesday the front will
move through with the deeper moisture shift to the east. Some
additional increase in the showers could form ahead of the front.
Which is occurring near the plateau at mid afternoon. Coverage is
expected to be limited and intensity not any stronger than the
showers that moved through earlier. An isolated thunderstorm
possible. Winds are starting to shift to the southwest along the
plateau. Temperatures at mid afternoon have been fairly steady in
the mid to upper 50s. With the rain ending there will be some fog
forming late as clouds thin. It does look like low level moisture
will be slow to clear as the front should not clear the forecast
area until Wednesday morning. After low clouds and fog Wednesday
morning expect sunshine peeking through the clouds by late morning
west and possibly later northeast. Should be partly cloudy by
afternoon everywhere. Temperatures Wednesday will be near to
slightly above normal in the 60s to near 70. Winds will be from the
north to northwest. Relative humidity values will drop to around 40
percent so no fire weather concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Key Messages:

1. Cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday night with
frost/freeze potential across some areas.

2. An upper level system will bring unsettled weather and warmer
temperatures for next week.

Discussion:

Much drier air will be in place Thursday into Friday as a trough
axis moves through the Eastern US and surface high pressure settles
in from the west. Lows will fall back into the 30`s to lower 40`s
with clear skies and light winds. Upper level ridging begins to
break down this weekend with high pressure moving off into the
western Atlantic. Southerly return flow will quickly bring back
warmer temperatures with highs in the 60`s to 70`s. A boundary will
develop to the north Sunday and Monday resulting in an increase in
cloud cover and potentially some rain showers across northern
portions of the area.

Confidence remains low in the synoptic details for midweek. The
general consensus is that a trough will move out of the west
resulting in an area of low pressure that will develop across the
plains and lift NE. Unsettled weather will return for next week with
increasing rain and storm chances and above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

The main aviation impact into the early morning hours will be
patchy dense fog, which has been ongoing most significantly at
TYS. Continued fog development is expected at CHA and to a lesser
degree at TRI. It is unclear how low the categories will go, but
LIFR or less is possible at all of the sites. By daybreak, the fog
and low clouds will lift with winds gradually shifting to a
westerly direction. Some mid/high clouds are expected as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             67  43  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  65  41  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       66  40  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  39  57  34 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....Diegan
AVIATION...BW


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