Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 161835
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
235 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure to the south moves off the mid Atlantic
coast today. A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight
as the associated low tracks through southeastern Canada. The
cold front moves across the region Sunday. The low moves slowly
eastward Sunday night and Monday and will bring another cold
front across the region late Monday. Weak disturbances move
through the area through the middle of next week followed by
high pressure for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Increased cloud cover for the next few hours as some fair
weather clouds developed over the area. Some drier air in the
lower levels is working its way into western portions of the
forecast area, allowing for skies to clear. Expect this trend
to continue for the rest of the afternoon, with clearing skies
from west to east. Otherwise, forecast is on track.

A warm airmass remains in the area as weak high pressure
remains centered to the south, moving off the mid Atlantic coast
this afternoon. A deep layered flow will remain through the day
with mostly clear conditions. Highs will be near 10 degrees
above normal levels, with the MOS and NBM guidance reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A digging upper trough across eastern Canada will send a cold
front toward the region tonight, as the upper flow still remains
mostly zonal. An associated surface low will track across
southeastern Canada tonight through Monday with the upper flow
slowly becoming southwesterly. There will be little moisture or
upper support with the cold front and a few scattered showers
will be possible late tonight into Sunday morning. The showers
may even become more scattered or dissipated before the cold
front moves through as the upper energy moves to the northeast.
Once again temperatures Sunday will be as much as 10 degrees
above normal. With the passage of the front temperatures return
to more normal levels Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term looks to be fairly quiet and dry despite a large
upper level trough over the Northeast for much of next week.

The upper level trough over the area on Monday night and
Tuesday becomes reinforced by mid-level energy moving in from
the northwest. Despite weak surface high pressure attempting to
build in, these mid- level disturbances may result in weak
frontal waves to move over the area through the middle of the
week. These weak systems looks to be mostly deprived of moisture
so there doesn`t appear to be much in the way of chances for
precipitation. The best chance will be during the day and
afternoon on Wednesday as cooler air aloft may provide for some
instability showers as a weak frontal system pushes through.
Best chance to see any sort of precipitation would be areas to
the north but capped PoPs at slight chance.

The trough attempts to lift by the end of the week with surface
high pressure trying to build into the area from the west. This
will allow for the mainly dry conditions to continue. Another
frontal system may impact the area by late Friday or into the
weekend.

Temperatures will be generally cooler than recently with the
upper level trough overhead. Highs through the week will
generally in the middle to possibly upper 40s for much of the
area with a slight warming trend toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure offshore will continue to give way to a cold front
approaching form the Great Lakes. The front passes through the
area Sunday morning, with a lee trough setting up behind it.

Mainly VFR. Brief period of MVFR possible with scattered showers
in the morning from 09-14Z.

SW-S winds this afternoon at around 10 kt with locale seabreeze
enhancements expected mid to late afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt
may occur overnight ahead of an approaching cold front.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Seabreeze enhanced wind this afternoon may get up to 20 kt at
KJFK.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Afternoon: W winds 15G20-30kt in the afternoon, then
diminishing at night.

Monday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt, becoming WNW in the evening

Tuesday: VFR. WNW winds 15G20-25kt.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of rain inland, possibly
mixed with snow. W winds 10-15G20kt.

Thursday: VFR. WNW winds 10-15G20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below advisory levels today through
tonight. With an increasing south flow ahead of an approaching
cold front, and low pressure to the north, ocean seas build to
SCA levels Sunday morning. Marginal SCA wind gusts will be
possible also. Winds shift to the west late in the day and ocean
seas slowly subside to below SCA levels Sunday evening. Winds
and seas will then remain below advisory levels through Monday.

Small craft conditions remain possible on all waters Tuesday with
gusts upwards of 25 kt. Waves on the ocean will also be around 5 ft.
Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on the non-ocean waters by
Tuesday night with a return of marginal SCA conditions on the ocean
waters with near 25 kt gusts for Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected today through the end of
next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...JP/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JP/MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW


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