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000
FXUS64 KOUN 180539
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Strong surface moisture advection has occurred through the
morning and dew point temperatures have been updated a few times
to account for this. We have added low pops for late afternoon
thunderstorms in south central and part of southwestern Oklahoma.
Given the surface moisture magnitude, dry line, and temperatures
expected near 90 later this afternoon, any storm that would form
could produce severe hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Key Messages:
- Slight chance of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms through
  this evening across parts of western north TX, southwest into
  parts of central OK
- Strong cold front arrives tomorrow morning with strong north
  winds gusting 30 to 40 mph (strongest gusts in morning)
- Severe thunderstorms likely across southeastern portions of CWA
  tomorrow afternoon and early evening
- Elevated fire weather conditions for W/NW Oklahoma tomorrow
  afternoon

A mid-level shortwave axis currently extends from eastern Colorado
to west Texas. The 20Z surface observations show a diffuse
dryline oriented from near Childress to Cheyenne to Woodward with
the warm front near the KS/OK state line. A cumulus field was also
observed on visible satellite, most dense from southwest into
central Oklahoma - coincident with the theta-e maximum. The moist
sector is nearly uncapped with MLCAPE ranging from 1500-2500 J/kg.
Dew point temperatures ranged from the mid 60`s to near 70
degrees, which is much lower than the CAMS depict.

With weak mid-level dynamic forcing, storm chances are very low
today. However, given the parameter space and the underperformance
of modeled moisture, there is at least a slight chance of an
isolated thunderstorm developing ahead of the dryline over western
north Texas, southwest Oklahoma and near the OKC metro. Any storm
that does develop could produce severe hail. Storm potential will
rapidly go away near or just after sunset.

A strong cold front then arrives in northwest Oklahoma tomorrow
morning around dawn and is prog`d to reach central Oklahoma
around mid- to late-morning. Besides the cooler temperatures
behind the front, breezy north winds will be observed with gusts
of 30 to 40 mph possible. The front should exit the OKC metro
around mid-day, and portions of S/SE Oklahoma should heat up into
the 80s with dewpoint temperatures in the mid/upper 60`s. Strong
instability and weak shear will lend to the potential for severe
thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon across south-central and southeastern
Oklahoma. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main hazards.

Elevated fire weather conditions are also possible across western
Oklahoma due to the post-frontal winds and dry air.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Following the passage of the aforementioned shortwave, mid-level
flow becomes predominantly westerly as surface high pressure
slides southeastward across the plains. Temperatures trend
downward through the weekend, with the coolest day expected on
Saturday. Rain chances increase Friday and Friday night with rain
likely (mainly south of I-40) by early Saturday morning through
Saturday evening. There is a chance of thunderstorms throughout
this event, south of I-40, but severe weather is not expected.
Rain chances exit by early Sunday morning as the wave departs the
area. Then, temperatures return to the 70`s on Monday and Tuesday
with a chance of showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday across northern
Oklahoma.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

MVFR stratus expected to progress northward over terminals first
several hours of forecast ahead of incoming frontal boundary. Some
veering of lower level winds expected ahead of front toward 10-12Z
which should allow western edge of stratus to erode to the east.
Cold front timing sped up a little from previous forecast. Gusty
southerly winds ahead of front, with LLWS northern Oklahoma.
Strong northerly winds still expected behind the front with some
MVFR/VFR stratus possible behind it. Could see TSRA near KDUA
tomorrow afternoon associate with frontal passage, but leaving
PROB30 out for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  48  66  47  56 /  10  20  70  80
Hobart OK         46  65  45  55 /  10  10  70  90
Wichita Falls TX  51  67  51  56 /  10  10  80 100
Gage OK           40  64  40  54 /   0   0  50  70
Ponca City OK     44  65  45  60 /   0  10  40  60
Durant OK         54  68  55  60 /  30  20  70  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...04