085
FXUS64 KOUN 301722
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Mostly clear skies are in place across the area early this morning,
with the exception of some patchy fog across southern Oklahoma where
moisture return has already begun. Moisture will continue to surge
northward through the day as southerly flow increases. A dryline
will setup from northwest Oklahoma into far southwest Oklahoma by
this afternoon. Ahead of the dryline, moderate to strong instability
will be in place with relatively low CIN by mid to late afternoon.
Isolated to scattered convection is expected to initiate ahead of
the dryline, with greatest coverage likely to be across northern
Oklahoma close to a stalling frontal boundary, with a secondary area
of development across southwest OK and western north TX where
capping is a bit weaker. Wind shear will be rather modest with the
stronger mid-level flow remaining well to our north, but with
strong instability in place and bulk shear on the order of 30-35
knots, multicell to transient supercell storm modes could lead to
large to very large hail. Damaging wind gusts will also be a
possibility with fairly large T/Td spreads. The tornado threat
appears very low with fairly weak low-level shear, but could not
be completely ruled out as a modest LLJ increases towards early
evening, especially toward the Kansas border near the front.
Convection will tend to wane by late evening, with some potential
for it to linger through the night across northern Oklahoma in the
vicinity of the frontal boundary. Flooding could also become a
concern across northern Oklahoma this evening and overnight with a
tendency for storms to train along the boundary, but confidence
in boundary location and relatively narrow axis of heaviest rain
precludes a Flood Watch at this time.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Any lingering convection across northern Oklahoma Wednesday morning
is expected to dissipate as the front returns northward into Kansas.
Mid-level flow will strengthen a bit during the day as a trough
deepens to our west, with moderate to strong instability expected
once again ahead of the dryline which will set up a bit further
west than Tuesday. Better forcing for ascent associated with the
approaching trough will likely lead to better storm coverage, with
scattered to widespread convection expected along the dryline in
western Oklahoma and western north Texas by late afternoon. With
slightly better shear in place, all severe hazards will be
possible, although large hail and damaging wind gusts appear to be
the main threats.

The main upper trough will eject into the plains on Thursday,
sending a cold front into the area during the afternoon. With an
unstable airmass in place ahead of the front, expect additional
chances for showers and storms, most probable across central and
eastern Oklahoma during the afternoon and evening. At least some
risk for severe weather appears possible given decent instability
and sufficient wind shear.

Flooding will also be a concern in areas that see multiple rounds
of heavy rainfall, but this currently appears to be more of a
localized vs. widespread flooding risk given scattered nature of
convection. Rain and storm chances will then continue Friday into
the weekend as the frontal boundary stalls in the region and
southwest flow continues aloft.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR and MVFR ceilings are expected this TAF period. A frontal
boundary is expected to move into parts of northern OK overnight
which will cause winds in this area to shift towards the E and NE.
Isolated/widely scattered storms are possible late
afternoon/evening but chances too low for any particular TAF
sites. However, current thoughts are highest chances would be
SW OK/western north TX and in N OK. More widespread storms will be
possible overnight into Wednesday morning in north
central/northern OK with the boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  86  64  81  65 /  10  20  50  40
Hobart OK         90  62  83  63 /  20  20  50  60
Wichita Falls TX  87  66  83  65 /  10  30  40  60
Gage OK           94  58  88  59 /  10  10  40  30
Ponca City OK     88  62  81  65 /  20  70  60  50
Durant OK         84  66  83  66 /   0  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...25