Text Products for ESF Issued by PHI

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1243 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...Number 7

This is the seventh in a series of annual Flood Potential
Statements that provides an assessment of how ready or primed our
forecast area is for river flooding.

This final outlook for Spring 2024 covers the middle/lower
Delaware, Lehigh, Schuylkill, Passaic and Raritan River basins.

It will provide information on flood threat contributors such as
recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and its water
equivalent, river ice conditions, streamflow, future
precipitation and others.

This assessment is valid between March 28 and April 11, 2024.

As we saw last week, in the Mid-Atlantic region, heavy rainfall
is the primary factor which leads to river flooding. It is
important to note that heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river
flooding any time of year, even when the overall river flood
potential is considered to be low.

This outlook does not discuss flash flooding, nor does it discuss
any extent or severity of flooding.

In the Mount Holly, New Jersey Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), the
overall river flood potential is above normal.

Note - For the headwaters of the Delaware River, see the
statement
(FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) from our Binghamton (BGM) New York office.

CURRENT FLOODING - None, although many streams and rivers remain
high from recent rain.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - Much above normal. Between 5.5 and 8.0
inches of liquid have been recorded over the last 30 days across
the entire HSA. Precipitation departure maps can be found at
www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Water Supply tab).

SNOW COVER - There is no snow on the ground across our forecast
area. Depth and basin-average water equivalent estimates can be
found at www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Seasonal Interest tab)
or www.nohrsc.noaa.gov (under the National Analysis tab).

RIVER ICE - There is no river ice across our forecast area.

STREAMFLOW - Above normal to much above normal. Real time water
data is available from the United States Geological Survey (USGS)
by visiting https://dashboard.waterdata.usgs.gov.

SOIL MOISTURE - Above normal to much above normal. Soil moisture
monitoring charts (Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index) from
NOAA`s Climate Prediction Center can be found at the following
websites...
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_
monitoring/palmer.gif as well as www.drought.gov.

GROUND WATER - USGS monitoring wells indicate that current ground
water levels across the region vary and are running below normal
to above normal. Additonal information can be found at
https://dashboard.waterdata.usgs.gov.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - Water supply and flood control reservoirs
in the area are mainly running normal.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - A slow moving cold front will
approach our region from the west as a wave of low pressure tracks
northeastward off the coast today, resulting in a period of
unsettled weather. Weak high pressure will begin to build in on
Friday. A weak clipper system may move through on Saturday,
otherwise fairly quiet and seasonable conditions will prevail over
the weekend. Another period of rainy weather is expected early
next week as low pressure tracks toward our region from the Ohio
Valley. Keep in mind the region remains primed for flooding with
high levels of ground moisture and high streamflows in place.
Under the current environment, a precipitation event that results
in about 2.00 inches of rainfall would likely cause river
flooding across portions of northern and central New Jersey,
northern Delaware, and southeast Pennsylvania.

For week two, the 8 to 14 day outlook calls for near normal
temperatures and precipitation.

SUMMARY - Taking all of the included variables into consideration,
the overall river flood potential is above normal across the
forecast area.

Since the contributions of snow and ice are highly unlikely as we
move into April, this will be the last Winter/Spring Flood
Potential Outlook for the season. But keep in mind, with recent
precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow all running high, the
region remains primed for flooding if a heavy rain event occurs.

For complete weather information, visit our website at:
www.weather.gov/phi

&&

Overall Flood Potential...Above normal
Current Flooding...None
Recent Precipitation...Much above normal
Snow cover...Normal
River Ice...Normal
Streamflow...Above normal to much above normal
Soil Moisture...Above normal to much above normal
Ground Water...Below normal to above normal
Reservoir Conditions...Normal

$$

Kruzdlo
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
