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000
FXUS61 KRLX 211236
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
836 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry this weekend, then slowly warming through Tuesday
ahead of another cold front that brings wet weather back to the
area Tuesday night. Frost is possible Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 836 AM Sunday...

Local obs around the area show rising temperatures this morning,
especially across southeast Ohio where temps dipped below
freezing overnight. This aligns with the inherited expiration of
the Frost Advisory earlier this hour.

A new Frost Advisory is possible for the lower elevations
tonight into Monday morning, which is already hinted at to our
west at the ILN and JKL forecast offices.

As of 635 AM Sunday...

A Frost Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM this morning for
portions of southeast Ohio, and central, northern and western
West Virginia. Previous forecast remains on track.

As of 300 AM Sunday...

Key Messages:

* Broad high pressure provides cool and dry weather through tonight.

* Widespread Frost for the lowlands late tonight into early Monday
  morning.

Broad surface high pressure over the central plains, with a ridge
extending east across the OH valley into WV, provides dry weather
conditions across the region for the weekend. A relaxed pressure
gradient allows for light to calm winds, becoming gusty briefly
during the peak mixing afternoon hours. Expect below normal
temperatures this afternoon, generally in the low to upper 50s.
Afternoon Relative Humidity values will once again be on the low
side (upper 20s to low 30s), but amid lighter flow than
yesterday, with breezes of 10-20 MPH possible at times.

With cold air in place and light to calm winds, temperatures could
drop into the mid to lower 30s again tonight, promoting a widespread
frost across the lowlands overnight tonight. Will keep frost
advisory until 8 AM this morning. Another frost advisory will likely
be issued for the lowlands with the next forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

Quiet conditions continue into the early work week as high pressure
slides east across the region Monday into Monday night

High pressure shifts off to the east Monday night putting the region
back into southwesterly flow Tuesday ahead of an approaching
northern stream low slated to arrive in the Lower Great Lakes
Tuesday night. This should yield a brief return to mild conditions
with daytime highs across the lower elevations in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. The atmosphere will be quite dry Monday into Tuesday with
dew point values in the lower to mid 30s before moisture begins to
work in on increasing southwesterly flow Tuesday night. Winds will
be relatively light on Monday, but will increase on Tuesday with
afternoon gusts 20-25 mph with RH values in the mid 20s. 10 hour
dead fuels have already dried significantly from recent rainfall,
although with the green up in full swing being able to get fire into
these thicker fuels may take some doing. Will need to check in with
land management agencies early in the week to get their opinion
on fuels for some possible fire danger statements for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

As alluded to in the short term discussion, a modest uptick in
precipitable water to around 3/4 of an inch is expected late
Tuesday. A cold front associated with the aforementioned low will
drag across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning yielding
around a third of an inch of rainfall averaged across the basin.
Instability looks rather meager, and coupled with overnight timing
will continue to cap any chances for convection at slight.

Cooler northwesterly flow over Lake Erie in the wake of cold frontal
passage Wednesday likely yields at least some lake enhanced moisture
plume feeding into the region during the day with fairly steep low
level lapse rates through 5000 ft. Could see some low topped showers
with this activity at least through Wednesday afternoon.

The balance of the work week appears quiet with the next chance for
precipitation looming for next weekend amid another strong warm
up.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 635 AM Sunday...

High pressure provides widespread VFR conditions under north
northwest flow through the period. Upper level cirrus associated
with a passing disturbance across the south, will persist into
the morning hours. A stratocumulus deck about 5,000 feet develops
through this afternoon. Breezes during the peak afternoon mixing
hours could bring wind gusts up to 19 knots, rapidly subsiding
by 00Z Monday.

Skies are expected to clear later this afternoon into tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MEK
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...ARJ