525
FXUS61 KRLX 090013
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
813 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for showers and storms continue, with the frequency
of storms posing concern for localized flooding. Strong to severe
storms are possible tonight and Thursday. Cooler beginning Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 626 PM Wednesday...

Dry conditions persist across nearly all of the CWA at present,
with heavy convection southwest of the region in central/southern
Kentucky. CAMs continue to trend drier across the region overnight,
with PoPs updated to account for this. Isolated strong storms and
localized flooding issues remain possible overnight. No changes to
the Flood Watch for the time being. The rest of the forecast remains
on track.

As of 146 PM Wednesday...

Key Points:

 * Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday morning.

 * After a lull in activity this afternoon, strong to severe
   storms return this evening into Thursday morning.

 * A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms remains in place
   into Thursday morning, with some storms having the potential
   for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and heavy downpours.

Minor changes noted to the forecast. Stationary frontal boundary
oscillates south to north through tonight, while a strong mid level
shortwave ride overhead, providing extra forcing to sustain strong
to severe convection. Although SPC has removed the enhanced and
slight risks for severe weather across our south, it maintains
a marginal risk for severe storms over most of the area through
Thursday morning. Storms will have the potential for damaging
wind gusts, large hail, and heavy downpours.

Hi-res CAMs show a lull in convective activity this afternoon,
becoming active this evening and tonight. Models show another lull
in activity with showers and thunderstorms returning around
midnight, and again from the west during the predawn hours Thursday
morning.

Localized flooding remains a concern as antecedent precipitation has
lowered 1 hour FFG to 0.75-1.25 inches particularity across the
Ohio River Valley and across southwest Virginia. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect through Thursday morning for portions of
the Middle OHio valley, northeast KY and central and southern
WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

Upper shortwave trough will be moving through the area Friday, with
showers, and perhaps an isolated storm. No severe is anticipated.
This will be followed by a brief break Friday night before another
shortwave drops southeast into the area for Saturday. Somewhat
cooler conditions can be expected for the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Wednesday...

Somewhat cooler conditions can be expected for the period, even
on Sunday, as a drier northwesterly flow remains over the area.
Overnight low temperatures could even dip into the upper 30s
across parts of the mountains Sunday morning. Warmer and dry
conditions can be expected for Monday with high pressure,
surface and aloft, briefly in control. Weather becomes very
unsettled again Tuesday onward, as a low in the southern stream
approaches the area. Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times
can be expected, and the period will need to be monitored for
potential water issues.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM Wednesday...

Widespread VFR conditions at present will persist most of the
night amid lower CIGs and an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms. The best chance for rain will be across southern
WV and southwest VA. Brief MVFR VSBY restrictions are possible
within showers/storms, but are not currently progged to impact
any TAF locations. CIGs attempt to lower into MVFR by late
tonight, but downslope flow may hamper this. Some river valley
fog cannot be ruled out, primarily across the deeper valleys of
southern WV.

MVFR CIG restrictions remain possible Thursday morning into the
afternoon, lingering longest at the central/northern terminals.
Additionally, ISOL/SCT showers and storms develop throughout
the day, particularly across central/northern locations, with
brief MVFR VSBY restrictions possible within this activity.
Given location uncertainty, prevailing restrictions have been
left out the TAFs for the time being.

Calm to light southerly flow is expected tonight. Southwest flow
is expected on Thursday, with occasional gusts of 15-20 kts
during the afternoon and evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR CIG restrictions late tonight
and on Thursday may vary from the forecast. Brief MVFR VSBY
restrictions are possible overnight and on Thursday in some locations.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 05/09/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms into
early Thursday night, then with fog and/or stratus Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for WVZ005>009-013>017-
     024>026-033-034.
OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ075-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL/GW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...GW