342
FXUS61 KRNK 271803
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
203 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will cover the region through Monday
with a mix of sun and clouds expected today transitioning to
mostly sunny skies Sunday and Monday, allowing for much warmer
temperatures. Rain chances return by Tuesday with a frontal
passage and additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible, mainly in the afternoon hours,for the remainder of
the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. High confidence for well above normal temperatures Sunday.
2. POPs added late this afternoon/early this evening in
southeast WV.

A weak upper level shortwave seen on water vapor satellite
traversing across KY early this afternoon will move over a
building upper level ridge north of I-64 late this afternoon
and early this evening. A few showers associated with this
feature were noted on radar in central KY, and with relatively
higher theta-e air across WV into far southwest Virginia,
allowing for these showers to potentially spread into southeast
WV into the early evening hours. As a result, introduced small
POPs in portions of southeast WV between 22Z-02Z.

Visible satellite imagery shows a swath of cumulus clouds
emerging out of the Atlantic Ocean and spreading north and
northeast into western NC and into southern Virginia. This may
may manifest into some stratus across the southern Blue Ridge
into NW NC tonight. High and mid level clouds are also expected
which should allow low temperatures Sunday morning to be a few
degrees warmer compared to this morning.

The big weather story tomorrow will be the abnormally warm
temperatures as an upper level ridge, 1-2 standard deviations
above normal, continues to build over our area. With good
subsidence, and more sunshine, leaned toward the warmer
guidance for highs Sunday with 80 to 85 highs likely for many
areas east of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:
1. Above normal temperatures through midweek.
2. Showers and storms possible Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Upper level ridging will expand northward from the southeast
into the Mid Atlantic through the beginning of the week, while
surface high pressure also builds over most of the eastern US.
Increasing 500mb heights suggest an increasing trend in
temperatures through Tuesday. Monday looks to be the warmest
day, with highs in the mid to upper 80s in the east, and upper
70s in the west, as southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching
cold front draws warmer and more moist air into the region from
the Gulf. Cloud cover ahead of the front may dampen diurnal
heating on Tuesday, but with ample warm air advection, thinking
temperatures will still reach above normal, though a few degrees
cooler than Monday.

As an upper shortwave trough crosses the area Tuesday, with an
associated surface low and cold front, probabilities for showers and
storms increase Tuesday afternoon and evening. Forecast CAPE values
are near 500 J/kg through the afternoon, aided by increasing
dewpoints and heating, and with enough shear in the environment,
could see scattered thunderstorms late Tuesday.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:
1. Warm temperatures persist through the week.
2. Daily chances of afternoon and evening showers and storms.

The upper shortwave trough and cold front from Tuesday will be to
the east of the area by Wednesday morning. The trough will help to
flatten the upper ridge, leading to more zonal 500mb flow for
Wednesday. The ridge starts to build once again while surface high
pressure expands into the region from off the southeastern US coast.
Generally southerly and southeasterly flow around the high will help
temperatures start an increasing trend again and into the end of the
work week. With the influx of moisture and warm temperatures, there
are chances for showers and storms each afternoon and evening
Wednesday and Thursday.

Through the second half of the week, an upper trough will deepen
over the central US and track northeastward into the Great Lakes and
southern Canada. With a stronger cold front associated with this
upper level feature reaching the Appalachians by Friday, expecting
better coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the area to end
the work week. Deterministic long range models differ in how quickly
this front approaches and moves through the region, so timing of
showers and storms is uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 114 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions were reported at all TAF sites early this
afternoon and confidence is high that these conditions will
persist through Sunday afternoon with the exception of KLWB
where a short period of MVFR to IFR conditions for local fog and
low cigs is possible early Sunday morning. A passing shower is
possible near KLWB late this afternoon to early this evening as
an upper level disturbance passes but no restrictions to
visibility are expected at the airport.

A few wind gusts to 20-25 kts this afternoon at KBLF will
diminish this evening with southwest winds 5 to 15 MPH expected
at all TAF sites Sunday. Confidence is high for good flying
conditions Sunday with the exception of early Sunday morning at
KLWB.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

Monday should be mainly VFR with southwest winds. NW winds
arrive behind a cold front crossing the area Tuesday with
-TSRA areawide and MVFR or lower ceilings. Widely scattered
-SHRA/-TSRA will be possible again Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...PH
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PH