National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KSGF 151939
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
239 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for isolated thunderstorms this evening. Marginal
  severe risk across central MO with large hail the primary
  risk.

- Potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe
  thunderstorms across the area Tuesday. Large hail and damaging
  winds the primary risks. Confidence remains limited. Stay
  tuned for updates.

- Windy conditions will develop on Tuesday with south winds
  gusting up to 40-50+ mph at times.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

This evening into tonight: A warm front is currently sitting
across the highway 54 corridor and slowly drifting northward.
Some convection may fire along the front, bringing a risk for
1" hail, but chances that storms fire in our CWA are less than
20%. Overall severe risk is less given conditionality of severe
threat, small area and time window where storms may develop,
and limited chances for convection to initiate in the first
place.

Overnight tonight may see some patches of rain move through,
but most locations should stay dry.

For Tuesday, the strong, stacked low pressure system that is
driving short term conditions will shift from NE to IA, this
results in the CWA bring between better forcing further north
closer to the low and further south where better instability
should exist. In fact, the mid-level jet right exit region will
be over the CWA, resulting in upper confluence and downward
motion. The airmass will not feature a lot of moisture
throughout the profile and a dry line will surge in from the
west, further reducing potential for sustained convection and
limiting coverage. But, if convection can become established and
enough instability can develop, shear will be strong (deep
layer shear around 70 kts) so severe storms will be possible.
Current thinking is that the best potential for storms will be
over the northeastern and eastern CWA in the afternoon and
evening, but still featuring limited PoPs of <50% over most of
the area. Main hazards would be large hail and damaging winds.
There remains considerable uncertainty on the coverage and
potential for storms, the amount of instability that can be
realized, and resulting hazards. Stay tuned for updates.

The greater likelihood of impacts lies with gusty southerly
winds on Tuesday, especially over the western CWA where the dry
line moves through earlier in the day, resulting in increased
mixing. Could see gusts of 45-55 mph along and west of Highway
65. There may also exist a fire weather threat over the west
depending on the level of mixing and surface RH values. HRRR
shows RH values into the teens in the afternoon west of Highway
65.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Wednesday will see breezy westerly winds, highs in the 70s to
mid 80s, and sunny skies.

For Thursday, SPC has the equivalent to a slight risk over the
southwestern CWA. Guidance shows a warm front across the area
with a surface low moving up the front in the afternoon as
shortwave energy moves through. There is considerable
uncertainty in how much morning precipitation will be around and
resulting afternoon instability. Current forecast calls for
highs ranging from the low 70s NW to the mid 80s S. If ideal
conditions can develop, deep layer shear around 50 kts with
favorable arcing hodographs and SBCAPE values up to around 2,000
J/kg are possible. Severe weather with all hazard modes would
be possible. Stay tuned.

Unsettled conditions are possible Friday and Saturday with
20-30% chances for showers and highs in the 50s and 60s. Sunday
and Monday look dry with highs in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

High confidence that strong southerly winds will develop at all
TAF sites tonight into Tuesday, with potential for gusts of
40-50 kts Tuesday afternoon/evening.

Low confidence in coverage of showers and thunderstorms tonight
into Tuesday. Moisture looks to be lacking for widespread
convection, but there is a roughly 30% chance of isolated
showers and storms. If stronger storms do develop, some could be
strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Record High Temperatures:

April 15:
KSGF: 87/1924
KJLN: 86/2006
KVIH: 84/1955
KUNO: 84/1967


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 15:
KSGF: 63/2006

April 16:
KSGF: 66/1963


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus
CLIMATE...Titus