864
FXUS64 KSHV 040554
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1254 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Much quieter night, as current radar shows nothing across the
region. Short-term progs suggest this will continue overnight,
although the GFS has some possible isolated activity in our
northern zones after midnight. There is also a decaying cluster
of convection moving eastward out of North and Central Texas
towards the region. Given the moist and somewhat unstable
environment in place, wouldn`t be surprised if an isolated shower
or thunderstorm developed anywhere across the area overnight,
especially when that decaying boundary moves into the area. Also,
there is the potential for some dense fog, especially across our
Louisiana and South-Central Arkansas zones. Decided to hold off on
any advisories at this time, but this will need to be monitored
closely, as we are already seeing reduced vsbys in portions of
the aforementioned areas. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly
cloudy skies, with lows in the mid to upper 60s. /20/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Convection that originated across Oklahoma and North Texas late
yesterday has finally departed the area as a shortwave trough
lifts northeast towards the Tennessee River Valley. Farther
southwest, another weak perturbation in the southwesterly flow
aloft has helped to sustained showers and thunderstorms along a
remnant outflow boundary across Southeast Texas and South
Louisiana. Radar trends over the last couple of hours continue to
show redevelopment along the northwest flank of this line in
Central Texas. So far, this activity has been quickly weakening
with eastward extent as it nears our Deep East Texas counties,
mostly likely encountering a more stable airmass. Current thinking
is the heaviest precip should remain south and southwest of the
area and should dissipate by sunset with the loss of diurnal
heating and weakening of large scale forcing. The latest CAMs
suggest a few isolated to widely scattered showers are possible
this evening and tonight, mainly north of Interstate 20, but only
slight chance PoPs were kept in the forecast.

Overnight, another complex of showers and thunderstorms is
expected to form ahead of a cold front across Kansas and Oklahoma,
which should dive southeast towards the CWA. This complex should
be weakening as it moves into southeast Oklahoma around daybreak
Saturday. However, renewed development and intensification is
expected, especially during peak daytime heating in the
afternoon. Based on the latest CAMs and short- range ensembles,
current thinking coverage will mainly be scattered but will likely
coverage much of the area. Given the expected coverage, I felt
the NBM PoPs were too way and much of the short-term rain chances
were trended toward the HREF. There should be enough instability
and deep layer shear to support a marginal risk for large hail and
damaging winds, especially during Saturday afternoon through
early evening. Initial development in the afternoon may begin as
far north as I-30 before spreading southeast across the region.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, another complex of
strong to severe storms will develop along the dryline in West
Texas and may begin to affect the area early Sunday morning.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Robust convection will likely be ongoing across the area near or
shortly after sunrise Sunday morning. While the cold front is once
again expected to stall in our northern zones before retreating
back to the north again, a potent shortwave trough moving across
Texas and Oklahoma should help sustain strong thunderstorms for
much of the day Sunday. A few isolated severe storms will be
possible, mainly posing a risk for damaging winds. Rain chances
should diminish during the evening as the shortwave lifts
northeast and forcing weakens. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible, especially in Deep East Texas south of I-20. However,
current thinking is that the threat for flooding will remain
isolated and localized, and it will have been a few days between
rain events. However, if QPF amounts increase in future
forecasts, a Flood Watch may need to be issued.

Unsettled weather will remain in the forecast into next week with
near daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms,
especially north of I-20 as deep southerly flow persists across
the region. A longwave trough will move northeast across the
Central and Northern Plains pushing a cold front closer to the
region. This should bring a chance for more strong, possibly,
severe thunderstorms to parts of the area next Tuesday and
Wednesday. The extent of the severe weather threat is still highly
uncertain, but the best chances appear to be north of I-20, and
especially across Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas.

Another growing concern will be the unseasonable heat. Strong
southerly flow and warm air advection will result in rising
temperatures despite the persistent rain chances in the forecast.
From Tuesday through Thursday, there is a high chance (60 to 80
percent chance) of daytime high temperatures of 90 degrees F or
greater across much of Louisiana and into portions of Southwest
Arkansas and Deep East Texas. Combined with the high humidity,
peak heat index values should be near or above 100 degrees F.
Cooler temperatures may return by the end of the week.

CN

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Terminal winds have gone just about calm airspace wide this
evening and given the close T/Td relations, some BR has started to
develop, reducing VSBY at select terminals. That being said,
cirrus will continue to filter across the airspace over the next
several hours, which may limit the extent of the BR influence VSBY
impact. Over the next few hours though, given limited cloud
coverage across the central and eastern airspace terminals, VSBY
will likely continue to fall through early Saturday morning. Just
after 12z, VSBY should recover, with much of the airspace under
dense OVC with some gradual BKN returning by the evening. While
this package does not discuss the arrival of SHRA/TSRA, the 12z
period will begin to introduce this.

RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  68  79  69 /  50  40  80  20
MLU  86  67  80  66 /  40  30  60  30
DEQ  82  65  75  63 /  40  50  90  20
TXK  84  66  78  66 /  40  40  80  30
ELD  84  65  79  63 /  50  30  70  30
TYR  82  66  78  68 /  40  60  80  20
GGG  83  67  78  68 /  50  50  80  20
LFK  84  68  80  68 /  40  40  80  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...53