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000
FXUS64 KSHV 141728
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1228 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The morning stratocu cigs have become widespread this morning, and
are trapped beneath a steep capping inversion near 925mb as noted
on the 12Z KSHV raob. However, given the shallow depth of the
moist layer, continued warm advection and daytime insolation
should yield sufficient mixing such that the some of the drier
air noted above the inversion layer should gradually mix down to
the sfc through the day, thus eroding some of these cigs by the
afternoon. However, the cigs may be persistent a bit longer this
afternoon over E TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR/portions of NW LA where
low level theta-e ridging will persist, as well as shallow
orographic lifting in the higher terrain of the Ouachitas of SE
OK/Wrn AR. These cigs may also help taper back max temps a bit
which should result in slightly cooler conditions than what was
observed Saturday with ample insolation/drier air under a mostly
sunny sky. Thus, have lowered max temps 1-2 degrees across E TX,
with only minor tweaks elsewhere. The onset of mixing will also
result in some occasional wind gusts to 20-25kts today, with winds
decoupling slightly after sunset.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

For the 14/18Z TAFs, this morning`s developing Cu field is
increasing in coverage and density, accompanied by some passing
high clouds. These CIGs look to remain in the lower VFR range
through the afternoon and evening, again descending to MVFR
heights after 15/09Z at area terminals. South winds of 10 to 15
kts with gusts of up to 20 kts will continue through the afternoon
before dropping off to 5 to 10 kts overnight. No active weather is
anticipated to develop through the course of this forecast period.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  86  68  84 /   0   0  10  40
MLU  62  84  66  84 /   0   0   0  20
DEQ  61  80  63  80 /   0   0  30  70
TXK  64  83  66  80 /   0   0  20  70
ELD  61  83  64  81 /   0   0   0  50
TYR  65  83  68  81 /   0   0  20  50
GGG  64  84  67  81 /   0   0  10  50
LFK  65  86  68  85 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
AVIATION...26