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000
FXUS64 KSJT 190544 AAB
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Cold front continues to move southward across the area this
afternoon. As of the 2 PM hour, the front was already well south
of I-20 and was about to enter Tom Green county. Behind the front,
temperatures were only in the 70s in the Big Country with gusty
northerly winds. Ahead of the front, temperatures had soared into
the mid to upper 90s in the Concho Valley. It`s possible San
Angelo may touch 100 degrees before the front moves through in the
next 1-2 hours. The front should clear the I-10 corridor by the
mid evening hours. CAMs continue to develop isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening mainly
across the Heartland and northwest Hill Country. With 2000-3000
J/KG MLCAPE and around 30 knots of effective bulk shear, any storm
that does develop will have the potential to produce large hail
bigger than golf ball size and damaging winds. Coverage of storms
this evening looks low and most of us will remain dry.

Much cooler tonight behind the front, with lows dipping into the
upper 40s north of I-20 and the 50s across most of the rest of
west central Texas. Friday will be much cooler compared to today,
with highs in the 60s and 70s. Could see a few isolated storms
develop in the afternoon across the northern Edwards Plateau, but
most of us will remain dry through the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Precipitation chances ramp up even further as we head into Friday
night and Saturday. Southwest flow aloft will increase across the
area ahead of an approaching short wave over the Desert
Southwest, while low level moisture is lifted up and over the cool
post frontal airmass. Precipitable water values will climb into
the 1-1.5 inch range into Saturday, which will contribute to
locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding potential,
especially on Saturday. Mainly looking at the potential for
localized flooding of low lying areas and some street flooding.
Will maintain a high chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday
night into Saturday, with precipitation ending from west to east
Saturday night as the short wave exits the region. Temperatures
will be considerably cooler on Saturday, with highs ranging from
the 50s across the Big Country, to the low and mid 60s elsewhere.
Chilly temperatures can be expected Saturday night and again
Sunday night, with lows in the 40s.

Dry weather is expected Sunday into early next week, along with a
warming trend. Highs will in the 70s by Monday and in the 80s by
Tuesday. Low rain chances return to mainly northern sections by
mid week due to a possible weak front moving in from the north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The cold front, near the southern border of our forecast area at
1215 AM, will continue pushing south overnight. Winds will be from
the northeast overnight and Friday. Low cloud cover has developed
west into our area with some increase in coverage. Expect most if
not all of our TAF sites to have low cloud ceilings (lowering to
MVFR) late tonight through most of the morning Friday.
Considerable cloud cover should linger through the afternoon,
but with VFR ceilings (generally 4000ft to 5000ft). Some chance of
showers and thunderstorms will develop by early Friday night, but
the main focus should be overnight and across mainly the northern
half of our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     53  59  44  61 /  70 100  80   0
San Angelo  57  65  46  64 /  70 100  60   0
Junction    61  75  48  66 /  50  90  70   0
Brownwood   57  64  45  61 /  70 100  90   0
Sweetwater  52  56  45  59 /  80 100  70  10
Ozona       59  68  47  64 /  70  90  50   0
Brady       60  67  47  60 /  60 100  90   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19