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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 121011
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
411 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild conditions will persist into Friday.
Southerly winds will increase some Friday ahead of an approaching
Pacific storm system that will bring gradually cooler temperatures
and some unsettled weather to the area this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...
Today a ridge will continue to amplify downstream of the forecast
area with deep, dry southwesterly flow in place across Utah. The
thermal ridge axis will surge northward across the state today
pushing H7 temperatures to near +7C, while forecast soundings
indicate the potential for a deep, well-mixed boundary layer
extending at/above 500 mb. All this to say, temperatures today
will run about 20 degrees above average for this time of year, and
we`ll see efficient mixing of higher momentum air aloft to the
surface, brining breezy/gusty winds this afternoon. Winds are not
expected to reach Wind Advisory levels, with gusts remaining
largely in the 25-40 mph range, strongest across western Utah.

Also expect largely clear skies today, until a decaying H5 trough,
currently off the SW California coast, will be swept up in the
southwesterly flow and pulled across Utah by early this evening.
This weak wave will have just enough elevated moisture and weak
forcing to help trigger some elevated convection (cloud bases
around/above 500 mb per BUFKIT profiles) across the central Utah
mountain by late this afternoon/early evening. Any elevated
convection that develops will do so above a very dry sub-cloud
layer and thus struggle to get precipitation to the surface. This
will largely result in virga or perhaps some sprinkles where any
moisture can survive to the surface. However, this also sets up
the potential for dry microbursts from any of these elevated
showers. Hi-res models are picking up on this convective wind
potential, showing the potential for gusty outflow winds,
especially from the Nephi to Provo corridor early this evening.
Will have to keep an eye on this potential as we get into the late
afternoon.

Another warm and breezy day is on tap for Saturday, although with
high temperatures trending down just a few degrees as the main
thermal axis shifts a bit farther east downstream. However, deep
southerly flow will remain in place as the next storm system draws
closer, moving into the western Great Basin. Saturday will feature
sunny/clear skies as ample dry air continues to be advected in
on the southerly flow ahead of the next trough. Very similarly
breezy conditions are expected with wind gusts largely 25-40 mph,
again highest across far western Utah.


.LONG TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...
The upstream low off the California coast late in the week will
be moving inland into the Great Basin at the beginning of the long
term period. Models remain in good agreement lifting an initial
shortwave along the downshear side of this circulation across
Nevada, leaving the forecast area in a dry southerly flow Sunday.
Cooling aloft associated with the approaching trough will result
in a 7-10 degree cooling trend in max temps Sunday across
western/central Utah, while eastern valleys can expect 3-5 degrees
of cooling.

00Z guidance has shifted the track of the upper low further north,
and is now forecast to traverse the Utah/Arizona border during the
day Monday. This northward shift will allow for better large scale
ascent across central and southern Utah, closer proximity to the
low, with an associated mid level deformation axis crossing northern
Utah. This trend will bring a greater potential for precipitation
across central and southern Utah, particularly the higher terrain
where storm totals of 0.50" of QPF or greater now look likely. With
snow levels in the 6000-6500 foot range, could be looking at the
need for winter wx headlines across the higher terrain from the
Wasatch Plateau region southward.

00Z guidance has also maintained a further north solution with the
midweek northern stream trough, which is now forecast to primarily
impact the northern Rockies while pushing a trailing frontal
boundary through the forecast area late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Model solutions now range from a dry frontal passage with
moisture/lift remaining north of the forecast area
Tuesday/Wednesday, to a slightly deeper/colder solution bringing a
band of precipitation into northern Utah while the south remains
dry.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Minimal operational concerns are forecast for the
KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period, with southerly winds
prevailing throughout. South winds will increase by mid to late
morning becoming gusty (20-25 knots), with gusts abating into
this evening. There is a low chance (20-30%) of sudden higher
gusts exceeding 30 knots from the south this evening between 7PM
and 11PM from convective outflow.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to
prevail across the forecast area through the valid TAF period under
largely clear skies. High level clouds will increase late this
afternoon into this evening from south to north, and clear
overnight from south to north as well. Winds are expected to
increase out of the southwest through the morning hours across a
vast majority of the forecast area, and become gusty this
afternoon across much of western/central Utah. In addition some
high based showers may develop over Central Utah this
afternoon/early evening and could produce gusty/erratic outflow
winds as far north as Provo/Heber and SLC this evening.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for UTZ125.

WY...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Church
LONG TERM...Seaman
AVIATION...Church

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
