472
FXUS01 KWBC 130727
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Valid 12Z Mon May 13 2024 - 12Z Wed May 15 2024

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will impact portions of
the Gulf Coast today and the Southeast Tuesday...

...Above average temperatures expected for the West...


A strong upper low will push east across the central U.S. today
accompanied by a strengthening surface low pressure system that
will sweep across the southern tier. A warm front will lift north
across the Gulf Coast ahead of the system and prime the
environment for showers and thunderstorms today. Severe
thunderstorms are expected from central and east Texas across
portions of the Gulf Coast states to the Florida Panhandle, and
the Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook highlights this
area with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms with
an embedded Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. Potential storm
hazards will include significant wind gusts, very large hail, and
a few tornadoes. Additionally, anomalous moisture and high
instability over the Gulf Coast region will support waves of very
heavy rainfall that will likely lead to scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding. There is Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall in effect from east Texas across southern
portions of the Gulf Coast states to the Florida Panhandle and a
Moderate Risk (level 3/4) in effect from the toe of the Louisiana
boot to the western Florida Panhandle. Heavy rainfall will also be
possible further north in parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley and
Upper Midwest along a slow moving frontal boundary draped over the
top of the southern low pressure system.

The low pressure system will continue to move east through
mid-week, and the warm front will lift north across the Southeast
while the trailing cold front moves across the Lower Mississippi
Valley on Tuesday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop across the eastern U.S. on Tuesday, and
although the severe thunderstorm threat will be lower than it was
on Monday, isolated severe storms with heavy rainfall will be
possible in the Southeast. By Tuesday night, showers and storms
will expand into the northeast as well, then the southern low
pressure system will push into the Atlantic on Wednesday.

Unsettled weather is also expected to develop in the Intermountain
West and the northern and central Plains as a frontal system moves
south across the region over the next few days. Low pressure will
consolidate and strengthen over the northern/central Plains on
Tuesday and move towards the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, and
this system will create chances for showers and thunderstorms and
high elevation snow.

Temperature-wise, highs will be generally above average for much
of the western third of the U.S. through mid-week, but cooler air
will move into the northern and central Rockies Tuesday into
Wednesday in the wake of a frontal system. Above average
temperatures are also forecast for the northern Plains, Great
Lakes, and Ohio Valley today, but temperatures will return to near
average or dip slightly below average Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures will be slightly below to near average for the rest
of the central and eastern U.S. with the exception of parts of
southern Texas and central and south Florida where temperatures
will remain above average. High temperatures in these areas will
be in the 90s and lower 100s, and some daily high temperature
records may be tied or broken.


Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$