680
FXUS62 KTBW 060033
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
833 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Made a few tweaks to the short-term forecast to account for the
latest radar trends this evening. Similar to last night, a broken
band on showers and storms is generally along and to the east of
I-75 from Sumter County south into parts of E Hillsborough and
far W Polk counties in WCFL. Convection looks to be attempting to
fire in parts of SWFL as well currently, as the sea breeze
collision appears to have occurred in areas further south. Expect
a few hours of showers and storms to linger for those areas as
well before overall trend of weakening area wide occurs later this
evening into the early overnight hours. Partly cloudy skies
prevail for the remainder of the overnight period with mostly
light and variable to E-SE winds and lows once again in the mid
to upper 60s, with immediate coastal areas as high as the lower
70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Adequate moisture and heat today will result in some seabreeze
shower and storms mainly late this afternoon and into the evening
hours.

As we go into the work week ridging will start to push overhead.
This will help to suppress any shower active that might want to
form in the afternoon and evening hours. This will result in hot
days without the help of clouds and storms to cool things down.
High will slowly climb day to day with the peak being Wednesday
through Friday where highs could reach the mid to upper 90`s
inland.

As we go through the weekend a cold front will push through the
area helping to cool temperatures back to average with high in the
upper 80`s to around 90 degrees. A few showers will be possible
with the front but for the most part models are keeping it dry as
it pushes through.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Evening convection with associated restrictions currently a
concern for a few hours for LAL and southern terminals as sea
breeze collision induced showers and storms are likely through
around 02-03Z before diminishing. Kept convective mention for
initial few hours for TPA/PIE, however, threat currently appears a
bit less for those terminals. Winds diminish to light and variable
to E-SE overnight before increasing out of the SE in the morning,
shifting to SW in the afternoon and eventually W-NW for northern
coastal terminals during the evening. With a similar but slightly
less active evolution on the table for Monday, guidance still
reflects a bit of uncertainty for overall convective impacts,
therefore introduced a PROB30 group for northern terminals and
excluded mention for southern terminals for this cycle, pending
further evaluation during subsequent cycles.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

High pressure will be over the are for Sunday and through
the week. This will lead to lighter winds generally staying below 10
kts through the period. The best chance to see any storms will be
this evening as storms push off the west coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Scattered showers and some isolated thunderstorms will be
possible today. For the work week high pressure will push over the
area which will stop any shower activity from developing and helping
to dry us out. The driest days look to be Thursday and Friday where
RHs look to get into the critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  88  73  90 /  30  20   0  10
FMY  69  91  71  91 /  40  20  10  20
GIF  70  92  70  93 /  30  20   0  20
SRQ  70  87  72  90 /  20  10  10  10
BKV  67  90  65  91 /  30  20   0  10
SPG  74  87  75  87 /  20  10   0  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana