463
FXUS63 KTOP 050559
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1259 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe T-storms appear likely on Monday afternoon into Monday
  night across the area. All hazards appear possible including
  tornadoes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Clouds are only gradually clearing in wake of the front that
brought morning showers and storms to the area. Stratus should
eventually diminish however another wave moving northeast will
usher in more mid and high clouds overnight. This should act to
inhibit more widespread fog potential. The wave will also
produce another round of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across southeast KS. Some of that precipitation
may make it into areas mainly along and southeast of I-35 late
tonight into Sunday.

All attention then turns to the wave that is currently over the
CA coast. This wave will quickly emerge into the Plains on
Monday morning as the lead shortwave and mid level jet streak
take on a negative tilt and move into the Dakotas during the
afternoon. A sfc low will move north into southwest SD during
the day with a surface trough/dryline extending southward
through central KS. There could be late morning storm
development along this trough across northwest KS as the
initial wave and ht falls overspread the area...however it still
appears that the bulk of the development will occur by mid to
late afternoon along the sfc boundary where a favorable
shear/CAPE values will exist to support severe storm
development. Exact location of afternoon development remains in
question but may be somewhere in the highway 81/CNK to ICT area
developing ENE from that area. Low level shear values especially
toward and after sunset will increase with the LLJ such that
the tornado risk will increase wherever storms happen to be in
that 7pm to 10pm window.

Bottom line is that we need to message that our confidence is
increasing that severe storms will occur Monday afternoon into
Monday night.

If there is any good news in this forecast it is that a pattern
change does appear to be on the horizon such that we may get a
break from the severe weather after Monday night perhaps for the
rest of week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Winds remain below 10 kts throughout the period, becoming
southeasterly by late morning tomorrow. Initially just high clouds
are expected, but lower clouds increase throughout the day tomorrow.
Forecast soundings suggest these will remain generally VFR through
most of the day and evening, though some MVFR ceilings may arrive
later in the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Omitt
AVIATION...Reese