Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
Issued By National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
313 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024

...2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Topeka Hydrologic Service Area
(HSA) which includes the Republican River, Solomon River, Smoky Hill
River, Big Blue River, Kansas River, Marais Des Cygnes River, Neosho
River, and their tributaries in north central, northeast and east
central Kansas.

...There is a near normal probability of flooding during the next
three months...

Outlook:

The probability of flooding through mid-May is near normal across
the NWS Topeka HSA.

The highest chances of flooding during the outlook period range
from 40 to 50 percent and include the following locations: Big Blue
River at Blue Rapids, Black Vermillion River at Frankfort, Salt
Creek at Lyndon, and the Marias Des Cygnes River from Reading
through Ottawa.

Recent Conditions:

During the past 30 days, above normal precipitation amounts were
common across the NWS Topeka HSA. Most locations received at least
150 percent of normal precipitation during this period. The wettest
area was generally in east-central Kansas where in excess of 200
percent of normal precipitation was observed.

Widespread above normal precipitation was observed across the
local region during the past 90-day period. Almost all locations
received in excess of 200 percent of normal precipitation. Liquid
precipitation amounts ranged from 3 to 7 inches above normal.

Mean temperature the past 30 days was 2 to 5 degrees above normal
across the the Topeka HSA. Temperature values ranged in the
lower to middle 30s. 90-day mean temperatures were generally
1 to 3 degrees above normal.

Present Conditions:

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that around 80 percent of
the Topeka HSA is experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions.
In addition, roughly 50 percent of the HSA is affected by moderate
drought.

There is currently no snow cover over Kansas and southern Nebraska.
In addition, little if any snow cover is found across the headwaters
of the Republican River in northeast Colorado.

USGS 7-day averaged streamflow values across the region showed much
above normal streamflow conditions across the Marias Des Cygnes and
Neosho Basins. Below normal streamflow was observed across the
Republican and Kansas Basin upstream of Topeka. The remainder of the
NWS Topeka HSA reported generally normal streamflow conditions.

Future Conditions:

Over the next 7 days, a tenth of an inch or less of liquid
precipitation is forecast across the Topeka HSA.

The outlook for the 8 to 14 day period indicates a pattern highly
favored for above normal temperatures. Normal precipitation
amounts are anticipated.

Looking at the outlook period through May. There is no clear
signal regarding temperature for the local area. The greatest
likelihood of above normal temperatures will be across the northern
third of the United States. The precipitation outlook slightly favors
above normal amounts across the NWS Topeka HSA.

The next Spring Flood Outlook will be issued February 29, 2024.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  02/17/2024  - 05/17/2024

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Big Blue River
Marysville          35.0   38.2   43.0 :  <5    9   <5    6   <5   <5
:Little Blue River
Hollenberg          19.0   19.4   45.0 :   5    6    5    6   <5   <5
:Mill Creek
Washington          18.0   19.0   35.0 :  15   27    9   18   <5   <5
:Little Blue River
Barnes              16.0   23.0   39.0 :  15   25    5    8   <5   <5
:Big Blue River
Blue Rapids         26.0   52.0   68.0 :  48   52   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Black Vermillion River
Frankfort           19.0   27.5   40.5 :  47   49   <5    5   <5   <5
:Fancy Creek
Randolph            16.0   24.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Chapman Creek
Chapman             19.0   26.0   37.0 :  12   28   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Lyon Creek
Junction City       21.0   35.0   39.0 :  24   35   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
Junction City       22.0   32.0   44.0 :  13   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kansas River
Ft Riley            21.0   26.0   33.0 :  11   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Wildcat Creek
Manhattan Scenic    14.0   17.0   23.0 :  14   20    8   13   <5   <5
:Kansas River
Manhattan           18.0   26.0   42.0 :  12   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
Wamego              19.0   26.0   38.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Vermillion Creek
Wamego              20.0   24.0   30.0 :   9   20   <5    5   <5   <5
:Rock Creek
Louisville          27.0   33.0   43.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kansas River
Belvue              20.0   28.0   33.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cross Creek
Rossville           25.0   29.0   31.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Mill Creek
Paxico              21.0   31.0   33.0 :  37   41   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kansas River
Topeka              26.0   27.0   44.0 :   6    6    6    6   <5   <5
:Soldier Creek
Delia               26.0   26.5   29.5 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Topeka              29.0   34.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kansas River
Lecompton           17.0   23.8   27.0 :  15   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
Lawrence            18.0   20.0   29.0 :   9   15    5    6   <5   <5
:Wakarusa River
Lawrence            23.0   25.0   45.0 :   7    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Republican River
Scandia             10.0   13.0   15.0 :   6    9    5    6   <5   <5
:Buffalo Creek
Jamestown           16.0   19.0   35.0 :   9   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Republican River
Concordia           15.0   18.0   30.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Elk Creek
Clyde               14.0   22.0   36.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Republican River
Clay Center         15.0   22.5   28.0 :  14   25   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Solomon River
Glasco              22.0   25.0   34.0 :   6   21   <5   16   <5   <5
Minneapolis         26.0   30.0   38.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Salt Creek
Ada                 18.0   20.0   24.0 :  <5   14   <5   13   <5   <5
:Solomon River
Niles               24.0   28.0   34.0 :  33   49   20   37   <5   <5
:Saline River
Tescott             25.0   29.0   32.0 :  24   24   14   19   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
Abilene Sand Spri   27.0   30.0   33.0 :  10   20   <5    9   <5   <5
:Mud Creek
Abilene             15.0   27.0   33.0 :   7   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
Enterprise          26.0   27.0   40.0 :  21   37   20   34   <5   <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Reading             19.0   21.0   45.0 :  48   51   45   49   <5   <5
Quenemo             17.0   24.5   40.5 :  57   55   32   32   <5   <5
:Salt Creek
Lyndon              10.0   16.0   24.0 :  46   47   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Ottawa              30.0   33.0   45.0 :  44   49   11    9   <5   <5
:Pottawatomie Creek
Garnett             26.0   32.0   34.0 :  33   34   <5   <5   <5   <5
Lane                23.0   24.0   28.5 :  16   16   12   11   <5   <5
:Turkey Creek
Seneca              21.0   23.5   40.0 :  10   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cottonwood River
Emporia             20.0   24.0   32.0 :  32   27   18   14   <5   <5
:Neosho River
Americus            26.0   27.0   40.0 :   9    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Emporia             19.0   19.5   30.5 :  22   17   20   16   <5   <5
Neosho Rapids       22.0   23.0   44.0 :  34   23   31   19   <5   <5
Burlington          27.0   40.0   45.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Leroy               23.0   23.0   38.0 :  11    8   11    8   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/17/2024  - 05/17/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Marysville           14.6   16.4   19.0   22.8   26.8   30.5   33.8
:Little Blue River
Hollenberg            2.8    3.5    4.3    6.0    9.1   12.1   18.2
:Mill Creek
Washington            1.8    1.9    5.9   12.0   16.1   18.8   21.8
:Little Blue River
Barnes                5.1    6.0    7.0   11.0   13.3   17.9   23.2
:Big Blue River
Blue Rapids          16.9   18.9   20.6   25.5   30.0   33.7   41.7
:Black Vermillion River
Frankfort             4.5    7.0   13.3   17.4   21.7   26.4   27.3
:Fancy Creek
Randolph              0.7    1.4    3.2    4.8    6.5    9.4   10.2
:Chapman Creek
Chapman               4.4    4.8    6.4    9.0   13.3   20.4   21.4
:Lyon Creek
Junction City         6.8    7.4    9.8   11.9   18.9   31.2   31.8
:Smoky Hill River
Junction City         3.0    3.1    5.0    7.7   12.6   24.8   25.5
:Kansas River
Ft Riley              5.7    7.3    8.3   10.3   13.7   22.2   23.5
:Wildcat Creek
Manhattan Scenic      3.7    3.9    4.3    4.9    7.1   15.2   20.0
:Kansas River
Manhattan             6.7    7.1    8.0    9.8   13.5   19.3   20.9
Wamego                4.3    4.9    6.7    9.5   12.4   16.3   17.5
:Vermillion Creek
Wamego                3.3    4.5    7.4   10.6   15.8   19.7   23.3
:Rock Creek
Louisville            9.3    9.8   11.3   13.1   17.2   21.8   23.7
:Kansas River
Belvue                7.0    8.1    9.0   11.1   14.1   17.4   18.2
:Cross Creek
Rossville             8.3    9.3   12.3   15.7   20.5   23.3   24.3
:Mill Creek
Paxico                4.6    5.7    8.0   12.6   25.2   28.3   29.8
:Kansas River
Topeka                7.5    8.8   10.3   13.4   18.4   24.5   27.8
:Soldier Creek
Delia                 6.4    7.1    9.2   17.6   21.9   23.7   24.9
Topeka                1.8    2.7    4.2    8.4   14.4   19.3   21.6
:Kansas River
Lecompton             5.4    5.7    6.7   10.2   15.2   17.9   20.4
Lawrence              9.5    9.8   10.5   13.1   16.2   17.9   20.5
:Wakarusa River
Lawrence              6.5    7.4    9.7   15.9   19.5   21.9   23.9
:Republican River
Scandia               1.5    2.1    2.8    3.8    5.1    8.5   12.4
:Buffalo Creek
Jamestown             1.0    1.0    1.0    8.0   11.3   15.6   16.9
:Republican River
Concordia             5.3    5.6    6.1    7.0    8.8   12.1   13.8
:Elk Creek
Clyde                 4.6    4.6    5.8    6.6    7.1    7.6    7.7
:Republican River
Clay Center           7.4    7.6    9.0   11.6   13.8   15.3   16.4
:Solomon River
Glasco                3.5    3.7    4.6    7.2   13.7   20.8   23.1
Minneapolis           2.2    2.2    2.9    4.2   11.5   16.1   17.4
:Salt Creek
Ada                   4.1    4.1    4.1    5.7    8.1   12.6   16.0
:Solomon River
Niles                 4.1    5.2    7.2   11.1   26.9   29.2   29.4
:Saline River
Tescott               5.8    5.8    6.8   10.3   22.8   29.7   31.2
:Smoky Hill River
Abilene Sand Spri     5.7    7.2   10.3   14.5   19.6   26.9   29.6
:Mud Creek
Abilene               1.5    1.9    4.1    6.0    9.7   14.1   15.2
:Smoky Hill River
Enterprise            8.6    9.7   13.0   16.7   22.3   31.8   33.9
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Reading               5.4    6.9   10.3   18.2   23.6   24.5   24.8
Quenemo               7.1    7.3   12.6   18.6   26.3   28.3   29.9
:Salt Creek
Lyndon                2.3    3.3    5.6    9.1   12.6   14.3   15.2
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Ottawa               10.2   12.3   16.5   27.6   32.1   33.0   34.8
:Pottawatomie Creek
Garnett               9.6   15.2   20.4   24.0   26.5   28.0   29.0
Lane                  7.5    9.1   11.6   18.3   22.1   24.9   25.7
:Turkey Creek
Seneca                0.9    1.3    9.3   12.8   17.4   21.1   22.4
:Cottonwood River
Emporia               4.1    4.9    9.4   14.9   22.2   26.1   26.5
:Neosho River
Americus              5.7    6.4    9.2   12.3   20.6   25.9   26.8
Emporia              10.5   11.2   12.3   13.6   17.9   23.6   24.1
Neosho Rapids         4.7    6.3    9.8   17.0   25.0   27.8   29.8
Burlington            9.4   10.8   12.6   20.6   23.0   23.8   26.8
Leroy                 7.1    9.4   11.3   18.7   20.0   23.4   25.5

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/17/2024  - 05/17/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Marysville           12.9   12.9   12.8   12.7   12.7   12.6   12.6
:Little Blue River
Hollenberg            1.6    1.5    1.4    1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2
:Mill Creek
Washington            1.4    1.4    1.3    1.2    1.0    1.0    1.0
:Little Blue River
Barnes                3.9    3.7    3.5    3.4    3.3    3.3    3.3
:Big Blue River
Blue Rapids          14.6   14.5   14.3   14.2   14.0   13.9   13.9
:Black Vermillion River
Frankfort             2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8
:Fancy Creek
Randolph              0.5    0.4    0.4    0.4    0.3    0.3    0.3
:Chapman Creek
Chapman               4.3    4.2    4.2    4.1    4.0    4.0    4.0
:Lyon Creek
Junction City         5.4    5.4    5.4    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.2
:Smoky Hill River
Junction City         3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
:Kansas River
Ft Riley              4.4    4.4    4.4    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2
:Wildcat Creek
Manhattan Scenic      2.8    2.8    2.7    2.7    2.7    2.7    2.6
:Kansas River
Manhattan             3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1
Wamego                3.0    3.0    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.8    2.8
:Vermillion Creek
Wamego                3.0    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.8    2.0
:Rock Creek
Louisville            8.9    8.9    8.8    8.7    8.6    8.6    8.6
:Kansas River
Belvue                4.9    4.9    4.9    4.8    4.7    4.7    4.7
:Cross Creek
Rossville             7.1    7.1    7.0    7.0    6.9    6.9    6.9
:Mill Creek
Paxico                3.2    3.1    3.1    2.8    2.5    2.4    2.3
:Kansas River
Topeka                5.0    5.0    5.0    4.9    4.8    4.7    4.7
:Soldier Creek
Delia                 5.2    5.2    5.1    5.1    5.0    5.0    5.0
:Kansas River
Lecompton             2.1    2.1    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.8    1.8
Lawrence              7.2    7.2    7.2    7.2    7.1    7.1    7.1
:Wakarusa River
Lawrence              5.0    5.0    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9
:Republican River
Scandia               0.4    0.4    0.4    0.3    0.2    0.2    0.2
:Buffalo Creek
Jamestown             1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0
:Republican River
Concordia             4.6    4.6    4.6    4.5    4.4    4.4    4.4
:Elk Creek
Clyde                 4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5
:Republican River
Clay Center           6.4    6.3    6.2    6.1    5.8    5.8    5.8
:Solomon River
Glasco                3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5
Minneapolis           1.8    1.8    1.7    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.5
:Salt Creek
Ada                   4.0    4.0    3.9    3.6    3.5    3.3    3.3
:Solomon River
Niles                 3.3    3.2    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.8
:Saline River
Tescott               4.3    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0
:Smoky Hill River
Abilene Sand Spri     2.5    2.5    2.4    2.4    2.4    2.4    2.3
:Mud Creek
Abilene               1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5
:Smoky Hill River
Enterprise            5.7    5.7    5.6    5.6    5.5    5.5    5.5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Reading               2.7    2.7    2.4    2.2    2.1    2.0    2.0
Quenemo               1.0    1.0    0.9    0.8    0.6    0.6    0.4
:Salt Creek
Lyndon                0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6    0.5    0.5    0.5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Ottawa                4.5    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.2    4.1    4.0
:Pottawatomie Creek
Garnett               3.6    3.6    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.3    3.0
Lane                  5.7    5.7    5.6    5.6    5.5    5.5    5.5
:Turkey Creek
Seneca                0.9    0.9    0.8    0.5    0.4    0.3    0.3

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/top for more weather and water
information.

$$

SAW


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