Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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859 FXUS64 KTSA 051518 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1018 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today) Issued at 1018 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 A soggy and wet morning continues across much of eastern Oklahoma and west/northwest Arkansas. Latest GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows the culprit mid-level shortwave trough and its axis just west of the forecast area. As such, widespread light to moderate rainfall, with pockets of heavy to very heavy rainfall, will persist into the afternoon. Rainfall rates 2 to 3 inches/hour will be possible and have been observed with the heavier showers and thunderstorms that occurred earlier this morning. Modest instability over the region will also keep a chance for strong thunderstorms that may produce small hail and gusty winds. As the trough axis advances eastward across the area this afternoon, so will the heavy rainfall/higher rainfall rates, with the heaviest rain shifting east of the forecast area by mid- late afternoon. Until then, flooding and flash flooding will be the main concerns for the day. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire forecast area until 7 PM this evening. Overall, the short term forecast remains on track, with only minor adjustments made thus far to the forecast grids. Afternoon highs will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s in most locations. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Lingering rain across the NW AR zones should end by 06z, leaving the forecast area dry for rest of tonight much of the daytime on Monday, though some model data hints at some elevated shower and storm potential Monday afternoon across SE OK and NW AR, so will keep a low Pop in those areas. Focus turns to storms that develop along the dryline to west later Monday afternoon in conjunction with an upper trough that lifts from the mountain west region into the high plains Monday afternoon and evening. Potential for some significant severe weather will exist with storms that northeast Oklahoma late in the afternoon or more likely Monday evening. Greatest coverage/higher end severe potential continues to favor NE OK and NW AR Monday eve/night. Despite lower storm coverage roughly from I-40 to the south, the environment will remain supportive of a higher end severe threat with any storm that develops. Coverage will diminish late Monday night and Tuesday morning, leaving most much of the area in a lull. However, will keep though low PoPs across the eastern sections of the forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday night. An uptick in storm chances will come Wednesday with a cold front that enters the area, with some severe potential in place ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and evening. The boundary will push through the area by Thursday morning. Cooler and drier air will filter into the area starting Thursday. An upper trough in NW flow aloft will clip the area Friday, and may produce a few showers across NE OK and NW AR, however will leave PoPs out for now. Otherwise, settled conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Widespread showers and storms currently across much of E OK will steadily expand eastward through the day. Widely varying ceilings having been noted both within the precip and further east across NW AR. These varying flight levels are likely to persist however the overall trend should be for low MVFR to IFR ceilings through much of the day. Precip will end from west to east during the afternoon, however ceilings will be slower to lift and lower flight levels are forecast to continue into the overnight hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 71 61 80 64 / 90 20 20 70 FSM 73 64 83 69 / 100 40 30 50 MLC 73 62 81 67 / 90 10 20 40 BVO 69 57 80 59 / 90 20 20 80 FYV 73 59 80 65 / 100 40 30 70 BYV 70 60 80 65 / 90 50 30 70 MKO 69 60 80 67 / 100 30 20 60 MIO 69 60 80 64 / 90 40 20 80 F10 70 61 80 67 / 100 20 20 50 HHW 72 63 79 69 / 90 10 20 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076. AR...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011- 019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...07